当南向资金转向红利配置

Core Viewpoint - The trading style of southbound funds has shifted from aggressive investments in technology stocks to defensive investments in dividend stocks following tariff disruptions and the first-quarter earnings reports of internet companies [1][5]. Summary by Sections Southbound Fund Activity - From April 27 to May 27, southbound funds purchased dividend assets, particularly bank stocks, amounting to HKD 24.9 billion [2]. - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) reached a new high, with a year-to-date increase of 7.9% and an overall return of nearly 10% when including dividends [2]. Shift in Investment Focus - In the first quarter, the top ten net inflows for southbound funds were primarily in Hang Seng Technology stocks [4]. - Since April, following tariff tensions, the top ten inflows have shifted to high-dividend stocks [5]. Market Conditions - The decline in internet companies' AI revenue and increased competition among major players like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba have led to reduced inflows into technology stocks [6]. - The domestic interest rate cuts and the lowest 10-year government bond yield at 1.65% have prompted a preference for high-dividend stocks as risk appetite decreases [7][9]. Insurance Capital Involvement - The recent trend shows that the inflow of funds into dividend stocks is primarily driven by insurance capital, which seeks to increase allocations to high-yield stocks in a declining interest rate environment [11]. - Insurance companies are encouraged to increase equity allocations, with the cap on equity assets raised from 30% to 35% or higher [11]. Future Projections - Goldman Sachs estimates that southbound funds will have a net inflow of approximately HKD 100 billion into dividend stocks for the year, based on current trends [17]. - The insurance sector is expected to release about RMB 646.1 billion in incremental funds, with 20%-30% likely to flow into the Hong Kong stock market [18][19].