Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-05-29 12:17Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 50% within a year, primarily due to misjudgments in demand forecasting and competition from Eli Lilly's Zepbound [1][4][5] Group 1: Company Performance - Novo Nordisk briefly became the highest-valued company in Europe in 2023, surpassing LVMH, due to the high demand for Ozempic and Wegovy [1] - The company faced a 19% year-on-year sales growth in Q1, which was below expectations, leading to a downward revision of its annual sales guidance [4] - The CEO was forced to resign amid concerns about the company's declining market share and competitive position [8] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's Zepbound has surpassed Wegovy in weekly prescriptions in the U.S., indicating a shift in market dynamics [6] - Eli Lilly's aggressive marketing strategies and faster resolution of supply shortages have allowed it to gain a competitive edge over Novo Nordisk [6][7] - Novo Nordisk's conservative approach to demand management, including limiting new prescriptions, has allowed competitors to capitalize on supply shortages [5][6] Group 3: Research and Development - Novo Nordisk has faced setbacks in its R&D pipeline, with disappointing results from its next-generation weight loss drug CagriSema [8] - In contrast, Eli Lilly has reported positive clinical trial data for two promising experimental drugs, including an attractive oral version [7][8] Group 4: Market Position - Despite challenges, Novo Nordisk remains a global leader in GLP-1 drug sales, serving nearly two-thirds of patients using these medications for diabetes and obesity [9] - Analysts project that the weight loss drug market could reach $150 billion this year, indicating significant growth potential [9]