“区区稀土，我也能造”！澳企传来风声，美欧能否突破中国封锁？

Core Viewpoint - Lynas Rare Earths has announced successful production of heavy rare earths, aiming to supply the US and Europe, raising questions about whether this can break China's dominance in the rare earth sector [1][9] Global Rare Earth Industry Landscape - Rare earth elements, known as "industrial vitamins," are crucial in modern technology, with China dominating the global market, producing over 60% of rare earth minerals and 92% of refined supply in 2023 [1][8] - The US heavily relies on China for rare earth imports, with 70% of its rare earth compounds and metals sourced from China between 2020 and 2023 [1][8] Lynas' Production and Cost Challenges - Lynas plans to separate 1,500 tons of heavy rare earths annually, which is only about 5% of China's output of 10,000 to 20,000 tons [3][9] - Lynas' production cost ranges from $10 to $15 per kilogram, significantly higher than China's cost of $4 to $7 per kilogram, not accounting for additional environmental processing costs [3][5] Technical and Operational Limitations - Lynas faces technical challenges, with its extraction process only replicating 30% of China's technology, resulting in lower purity of its products [5][9] - The company struggles with initial processing in Australia and relies on second-hand equipment from China, leading to operational inefficiencies [5][9] US Rare Earth Resource and Processing Issues - Despite having significant rare earth reserves, the US lacks refining capabilities, with over 90% of its rare earth chemical products dependent on China [7][8] - The US military faces production disruptions due to rare earth shortages, particularly for critical components like the F-35 fighter jet [7][8] Impact of China's Export Controls - China's export controls on certain rare earths have led to price surges and inventory shortages in the US and Europe, highlighting the global supply chain's vulnerability [8][9] - Other countries are investing in recycling and alternative materials, but these efforts will take considerable time and resources to yield results [8][9] Conclusion on Lynas and Global Market Dynamics - Lynas' ambitions are overshadowed by the reality of China's overwhelming advantages in production, cost, technology, and supply chain integrity [9] - The prospect of the US and Europe reducing dependence on China for rare earths remains unlikely in the near term, as China continues to play a central role in the global market [9]