原油多头别慌！OPEC+实际增产幅度或大打折扣

Group 1 - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain its current oil production quota plan, reaffirming the overall crude oil production levels established in December last year, with a planned reduction of approximately 2 million barrels per day by the end of next year [1] - A key focus is on a subgroup of eight member countries that will decide on increasing oil production by 410,000 barrels per day during a meeting on Saturday, with expectations to raise this figure to 1.37 million barrels per day by July [1][2] - There is skepticism regarding the actual implementation of the announced production increases, with estimates suggesting that up to one-third of the planned increase may not materialize, resulting in a more modest increase of 1.1 million barrels per day by July [2][4] Group 2 - Iraq has reduced its production to official target levels but has not fully complied with its compensatory cuts, while Kazakhstan has increased its production significantly above its adjusted targets [4] - If Iraq and Kazakhstan maintain their production levels from March to April, the overall increase in production by July could drop from 1.37 million barrels per day to 972,000 barrels per day, a reduction of nearly 30% [4] - Not all new oil supplies will enter the global market, as demand in the Middle East typically surges during the hot summer months, potentially consuming a significant portion of Saudi Arabia's increased production [6]