OPEC+增产计划“注水”严重？实际增量或缩水三分之一！

Group 1 - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in oil production by 1.37 million barrels per day, but actual supply growth may be significantly lower due to various constraints [1][4] - The agreed production increase from March to July includes contributions from several member countries, with Saudi Arabia contributing the largest increase of 167,000 barrels per day [5] - Compliance issues from countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan raise concerns about their ability to meet production targets, potentially reducing the actual supply increase to 972,000 barrels per day, which is only 71% of the nominal increase [7] Group 2 - Domestic oil consumption in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia, is expected to rise significantly during the summer peak, potentially consuming over 80% of the increased production from Saudi Arabia alone [7] - Historical data indicates that Saudi Arabia's domestic oil consumption surged by 460,000 barrels per day from March to July last year, suggesting a similar trend could occur this year [7]