张尧浠：初请疲软提升滞胀风险、金价触底回升前景仍偏强

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially declining before rebounding, indicating a short-term bullish trend, but still facing resistance from a downward trend line [1][3][5]. Price Movement Summary - Gold opened at $3287.32 per ounce, dropped to a low of $3245.36, then rose to a high of $3330.38, closing at $3317.46, with a daily range of $85.02 and a gain of $30.14, or 0.92% [1]. - The market anticipates that any pullback could present a buying opportunity due to the recent recovery pattern [3]. Influencing Factors Summary - Technical pressures and a U.S. court ruling against President Trump's tariffs initially pressured gold prices, but support from buying interest and concerns over stagflation and recession risks led to a rebound [3][7]. - The dollar index showed weakness, which typically supports gold prices, while U.S. Treasury yields had limited impact on gold [5][7]. Economic Indicators Summary - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. core PCE price index and consumer confidence indices, are expected to influence market sentiment, with a general outlook leaning towards initial bullishness followed by potential bearishness [5][12]. Technical Analysis Summary - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices are in a volatile adjustment phase, maintaining above the May moving average, suggesting a continued bullish trend if historical highs are not breached [10][12]. - Weekly charts show a rebound above the 5-week moving average, indicating strengthened bullish momentum and potential for further gains towards $3500 [12]. - Daily charts reveal a bullish triangle pattern, suggesting that any further declines could be seen as buying opportunities [14].