若现房销售落地，对代建市场有何影响？

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of "existing house sales" is being implemented across at least 32 provinces and cities in China since 2024, which will have profound impacts on real estate companies and local governments [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The central government has prioritized the promotion of existing house sales as a key policy agenda, emphasizing its role in preventing delivery risks [3][4]. - By the end of 2024, the policy will be fully implemented, marking a significant shift in the housing market dynamics [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Real Estate Companies - Existing house sales will increase financial pressure on developers, requiring them to adapt their financing models as they can only recoup funds after project completion [9]. - The development cycle will lengthen, compelling companies to focus more on quality and customer needs in project planning and execution [9]. - The shift to existing house sales will accelerate the consolidation of the industry, favoring larger firms while putting smaller companies at greater risk [9][11]. Group 3: Changes in Business Models - Companies are likely to transition towards lighter asset models, increasing their focus on construction and management services rather than heavy investment in land acquisition [11][12]. - The proportion of residential construction projects is expected to rise, with more firms entering the construction management sector [11][13]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The penetration rate of construction management in first-tier cities is expected to increase, while second-tier cities will remain stable and third- and fourth-tier cities may experience a decline [17]. - The existing house sales model will lead to a more competitive environment in the construction management sector, with larger firms dominating the market [21]. Group 5: Financing and Payment Structures - The existing house sales model will necessitate changes in payment structures for construction management projects, linking payments more closely to project milestones rather than sales revenue [20][21]. - Companies will need to collaborate with local governments to secure land and mitigate financial constraints, leading to a rise in joint ventures and partnerships [20].