美国要求芯片EDA巨头“断供”中国市场，将如何冲击国内产业链？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has mandated that major American EDA companies, Synopsys and Cadence, cease supplying EDA software tools to Chinese companies, particularly those identified as "military end users" [2][4][7]. Group 1: Company Responses - Synopsys announced it received a notification from BIS regarding new export restrictions and is currently assessing the potential impact on its business and financial performance [2]. - Cadence confirmed it must obtain licenses for exporting EDA software to Chinese entities, especially those linked to military applications, as per BIS guidelines [4]. - Siemens EDA has also reportedly received similar notifications and is verifying EDA software needs with its Chinese clients [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The new restrictions affect the three major EDA companies, which collectively hold over 80% of the Chinese market share, leading to a significant supply disruption for new products [5]. - Following the announcements, shares of U.S. EDA firms like Cadence and Synopsys fell by over 10%, while domestic EDA companies in China, such as Huada Empyrean and GY Electronics, saw stock increases of 15% and 20%, respectively [5]. Group 3: Industry Context - The global EDA software market was valued at approximately $13.437 billion in 2022, with a projected growth to $14.526 billion in 2023. In China, the EDA market was about 11.56 billion yuan in 2022, expected to reach 13.05 billion yuan in 2023 [6]. - Synopsys and Cadence hold 32% and 29% of the global EDA market, respectively, while their combined revenue from the Chinese market is projected to exceed 10 billion yuan in the 2024 fiscal year [6]. Group 4: Domestic EDA Development - The Chinese EDA ecosystem is still developing, with the number of domestic EDA companies increasing from 10 to over 120 in the past five years. The domestic EDA market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 14% from 2021 to 2025 [12][16]. - Domestic EDA firms are actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to enhance their capabilities and market presence, with notable transactions announced by Huada Empyrean and GY Electronics [12][16]. Group 5: Government and Regulatory Actions - The U.S. government has intensified export controls on EDA software, particularly targeting companies like Huawei and SMIC, which are on the entity list, thereby pushing China to accelerate the development of its own EDA tools [11][17]. - The Chinese government has expressed concerns over the U.S. export restrictions, stating that such actions threaten the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain and could ultimately harm U.S. industry competitiveness [17].