ETO Markets 市场洞察：白宫60分钟"利率核战"：特朗普怒斥鲍威尔"叛国"，美元霸权岌岌可危？

Group 1 - The core conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell revolves around the Fed's decision to maintain high interest rates, which Trump argues is detrimental to U.S. manufacturing competitiveness [1][3] - Trump highlighted that the U.S. dollar index has risen by 12% since 2022, negatively impacting the profits of U.S. export companies, while China has stimulated its manufacturing sector through interest rate cuts [3][5] - Powell emphasized the Fed's commitment to data-driven decision-making, citing that core inflation remains above the 2% target and warning against premature rate cuts that could lead to a wage-price spiral [3][5] Group 2 - The historical context of the conflict dates back to 2017 when Trump nominated Powell, but their relationship soured after the Fed began raising interest rates in 2018 [4] - Trump's administration is currently attempting to reshape the Fed's decision-making body by nominating members with dovish tendencies, while facing legal and market constraints on removing Powell [4][5] - The current federal funds rate is maintained in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, close to the peak levels since 2001, with concerns about the implications of high rates on the economy and international competitiveness [5][7] Group 3 - The meeting reflects a deeper structural conflict between the "America First" policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve, highlighting three major challenges: rising federal debt exceeding $35 trillion, a declining share of the dollar in global reserves, and geopolitical shifts towards non-dollar trade agreements [8][10] - The Fed's monetary policy decisions will significantly influence global capital flows, with potential outcomes ranging from increased debt crises in emerging markets to a decline in the dollar's status as a reserve currency [8][10] - The ongoing power struggle between political and economic cycles is expected to intensify as the 2026 Fed chair transition approaches, indicating a period of heightened uncertainty in the financial markets [10]