【UNFX课堂】特朗普与鲍威尔：一场爱恨交织的货币政策博弈

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has evolved from initial trust to public conflict, highlighting the tension between political influence and central bank independence [1][5]. Group 1: Initial Expectations - Trump initially appointed Powell with high hopes for a more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and achieve his vision of "Make America Great Again" [1]. - Powell was seen as a key figure capable of maintaining good communication with the White House and promoting economic prosperity during their initial "honeymoon" period [1]. Group 2: Rising Tensions - The honeymoon phase ended as the U.S. economy recovered, leading the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates multiple times in 2018 to combat inflation, which triggered Trump's dissatisfaction [2]. - Trump publicly criticized the Fed's rate hikes, labeling them as "crazy" and claiming they were harming the U.S. economy [2][3]. Group 3: Continued Conflict - Trump's discontent with the Fed's policies led him to break the long-standing tradition of the White House refraining from commenting on monetary policy, raising concerns about the erosion of the Fed's independence [3]. - During a recent meeting, Trump pressured Powell to lower interest rates, arguing that current rates put the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage against countries like China [4]. Group 4: Fed's Response and Independence - Powell reiterated the Fed's commitment to independence, stating that monetary policy decisions would be based on economic data rather than political pressure [5]. - Following the meeting, the Fed emphasized its independence and data-driven decision-making principles to maintain its credibility as an independent central bank [5]. - U.S. law protects the Fed's independence, preventing the President from arbitrarily dismissing the Fed Chair, a principle reinforced by a 2025 Supreme Court ruling [5]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The evolving relationship between Trump and Powell illustrates the inherent tension between political power and central bank independence, significantly impacting U.S. economic policy [5]. - The situation raises important discussions about central bank independence, providing valuable insights for global central banks [6].