人民币兑美元为何走强？

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to systemic changes in the international monetary system and increasing risks associated with the US dollar, indicating a potential long-term upward trend for the RMB [2][3][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The onshore RMB to USD exchange rate has been on an upward trend since early April, recovering from a low of 7.3498 on April 9 to surpass the 7.2 mark in May [2]. - As of May 26, the offshore RMB reached a high of 7.1833, marking the highest level since November 8, 2024, with a 1.01% increase in May and a 1.48% increase year-to-date [2][3]. - Experts suggest that the RMB's recent performance reflects a return to its long-term theoretical trend due to short-term factors like increased dollar risks [3][4]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline of the US dollar index, which fell from a peak of 103.3376 on April 9 to 97.923 on April 21, is a significant factor influencing the RMB's appreciation [3]. - The US Federal Reserve's acknowledgment of potential economic challenges, including rising inflation and unemployment, contributes to the weakening of the dollar [3]. - Recent monetary policy measures by the People's Bank of China, including interest rate cuts and liquidity support, have bolstered the domestic economy's resilience against external shocks, providing internal support for the RMB [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Experts believe that the RMB should theoretically be on an upward trajectory due to China's economic growth, which typically leads to an increase in national income levels and currency appreciation [3][4]. - The overall balance of international payments in China is expected to remain stable, further supporting the RMB's position in the foreign exchange market [4].