Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-30 08:37Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective adjustment, while the consumer sector remained resilient, highlighted by the performance of the largest consumer ETF (159928) which maintained a steady trading volume exceeding 200 million yuan, ranking first among its peers [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer ETF (159928) showed mixed performance among its key components, with the aquaculture sector performing strongly, including a more than 4% increase in Muyuan Foods and over 2% in Dongpeng Beverage, while Kweichow Moutai fell over 1% [3] - As of May 29, the consumer ETF (159928) index had a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.79, placing it at the 0.47 percentile of its valuation over the past decade, indicating it is cheaper than 99% of the time in the last ten years [8] Group 2: Economic and Policy Insights - CITIC Securities anticipates a recovery in domestic demand by the first half of 2025, driven by ongoing policy support aimed at boosting consumption, despite increased market volatility and uncertainty [4] - The report outlines four slow-moving variables affecting the macroeconomic landscape, including aging population, smaller family units, AI-driven production changes, and complex external environments, which are fostering new consumption trends [4] - The short-term recovery in consumption-related sectors is expected to depend on overall macroeconomic expectations, with 2025 potentially marking a turning point for domestic consumption [5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Nomura Orient identifies four key investment strategies for the food and beverage sector in the second half of 2025, focusing on high-line cities, the recovery of the restaurant sector, the development of domestic consumption, and high dividend yields [7][8] - The consumer sector is expected to see a shift towards rational consumption, quality upgrades, and emotional value spending, alongside technological advancements creating new consumption opportunities [5][6] Group 4: Sector Composition - The top ten holdings of the consumer ETF (159928) account for 67% of its weight, with leading liquor stocks comprising 31% and major pig farming companies at 13% [9] - Key stocks include Yili (10.73%), Kweichow Moutai (10.31%), and Wuliangye (8.88%), indicating a strong presence of essential consumer goods within the ETF [9]