专访德银全球首席策略师：对美欧达成贸易协议乐观，黄金和优质债券仍是对冲风险核心资产

Core Viewpoint - The main victims of the trade conflict are likely to be the U.S. economy, with both businesses and consumers bearing the burden of higher tariffs, which is not the desired outcome for the U.S. government [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Outlook - There is optimism regarding a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, with expectations that the trade conflict will be resolved in a pragmatic manner, allowing businesses to continue trading and promoting economic growth [1][4]. - The upcoming talks between EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and U.S. counterparts are scheduled to take place during the OECD ministerial meeting in Paris [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The imposition of tariffs is expected to lead to higher inflation and maintain elevated prices, while also causing economic growth to slow down [5][6]. - The scale and duration of the tariffs will significantly influence the extent of their economic impact, with businesses likely to adjust over time to mitigate these shocks [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - In response to market volatility caused by tariffs, the focus has shifted to hedging strategies, with gold and high-quality bonds being core assets for risk mitigation [1][8]. - There is a recommendation to pay attention to U.S. technology companies' earnings and opportunities arising from Germany's fiscal stimulus plans [1][8]. Group 4: European Economic Resilience - The EU has experience in handling trade relations, particularly since the Brexit negotiations began in 2016, and the establishment of the single market has taken decades [7]. - The EU's internal non-tariff barriers present opportunities for market potential, and the focus will be on developments in U.S.-EU trade relations, especially after the "90-day suspension period" [7]. Group 5: German Fiscal Policy - The German government's decision to abandon the "debt brake" is seen as a significant event, allowing for substantial infrastructure investments over the next decade, particularly in 2026 and 2027 [9]. - This fiscal policy is expected to lead to notable economic growth in Germany, which will also positively impact the Eurozone economy [9]. Group 6: Emerging Markets Perspective - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, will be affected by the changing global trade landscape, but companies have shown resilience in adapting to macroeconomic and regulatory changes [10]. - India is viewed positively, especially in the financial sector, while large internet and IT companies in China are also seen as having strong earnings potential [10]. Group 7: Gold as a Hedge - Gold is recommended as a high-quality hedging tool, with its structural upward trend recognized by many investors [11]. - Active asset allocation is emphasized as crucial in uncertain market conditions, allowing for adjustments in equity asset proportions [11]. Group 8: Bond Market Insights - There is a growing scarcity of high-quality bonds, with German government bonds still considered a safe haven, contributing to the rising yields in Germany and the Eurozone [12]. - Flexibility in managing duration and credit risk is advised, particularly in a moderately high inflation environment [12]. Group 9: Central Bank Strategies - The protectionist policies of the U.S. may lead to divergent strategies among central banks, with the European Central Bank expected to have room for further rate cuts [13]. - The Fed may also implement several rate cuts, although the timing remains uncertain [13]. Group 10: Currency Predictions - The euro is expected to strengthen against the dollar, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous months, driven by the "whatever it takes" policy and anticipated economic growth by 2027 [14]. Group 11: Underestimated Risks - The bond market, particularly long-term bonds, is highlighted as a potential source of risk, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5% [15]. - High tariff levels pose a risk of obstructing trade, which could be detrimental to the market [15]. Group 12: Common Investor Mistakes - Investors are advised to conduct thorough analysis before trading, as overreacting to market signals can lead to unnecessary sell-offs [16].