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Elon Musk Thinks Tesla Will Be the World's Most Valuable Company, but This Huge Problem Could Send Its Stock Plunging by 70% Instead
TeslaTesla(US:TSLA) The Motley Foolยท2025-05-30 09:00

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock reached a record high following President Trump's election win, with expectations that deregulation could accelerate the commercialization of its autonomous robotaxi and humanoid robot initiatives [1] Group 1: Company Performance - CEO Elon Musk believes that Tesla's autonomous robotaxi and humanoid robot businesses could make it the world's most valuable company, potentially exceeding the combined value of the next five largest companies, which currently have a market capitalization of $13.6 trillion [2] - Tesla's market capitalization is currently $1.2 trillion, with most revenue still derived from electric vehicle (EV) sales, which are experiencing declining demand [3][19] - In 2023, Tesla achieved record EV deliveries of 1.81 million vehicles, a 38% year-over-year increase, but in 2024, deliveries decreased by 1% to 1.79 million [5] Group 2: Sales and Market Challenges - Tesla's EV sales are declining, with first-quarter 2025 deliveries plunging by 13%, and second-quarter estimates suggesting a potential drop of over 20% year-over-year [6][7] - In April 2024, new Tesla EV registrations in the UK fell by 62%, with significant declines across Europe, including 81% in Sweden and 74% in the Netherlands [7] - Overall EV sales in Europe increased by 28% in April, with competitors like BYD seeing a 359% sales increase, surpassing Tesla for the first time [8][9] Group 3: Future Prospects and Valuation - Tesla's Cybercab robotaxi, designed to operate without a steering wheel, is not yet approved for public use, and true scale is not expected until the second half of 2026 [11][12] - The Optimus humanoid robot could generate significant revenue, with Musk predicting production of millions annually by 2029 or 2030 [14][15] - Tesla's current P/E ratio is 186.5, significantly higher than the average P/E ratio of 32.2 for its major competitors, indicating a potential risk of a stock price decline to align with industry peers [16][18]