6月注定不平静，美股盛宴即将“散场”？

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has surged 6.2% in May, potentially marking the largest May gain since 1990, but analysts express concerns about a possible end to this rally due to trade war fears and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies [1][4] - Historical data indicates that June has typically been a weak month for the S&P 500, with an average gain of only 0.2% over the past 30 years, compared to an average of 0.8% for the other 11 months [4][5] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision on June 18 and the "triple witching" day shortly after are expected to increase market volatility, which could impact the ability of bulls to push the S&P 500 towards the psychological level of 6000 [5][6] Group 2 - The saying "Sell in May and go away" reflects the historical trend of lower market returns from May to October compared to November to April, with the S&P 500 averaging only a 1.8% gain during the period from Memorial Day to Labor Day since the early 1970s [6][8] - Fund managers have recently reduced cash holdings and significantly invested in U.S. equities, raising questions about who will be the next buyers after the aggressive buying in May [9] - UBS data shows that commodity trading advisors (CTAs) have turned net long on stocks for the first time since early March as the S&P 500 surpassed 5800, but there are concerns that if the index does not quickly break through 6000, CTAs may only buy modestly in the coming weeks [9]