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十年之后,复盘“中国制造2025”
Guan Cha Zhe Wang·2025-05-30 11:10

Group 1 - "Made in China 2025" aims to transform China from a "world factory" to a global high-tech manufacturing leader by 2025, with a target of 70% self-sufficiency in core components and key materials [3][4] - The initiative focuses on ten high-tech sectors, including semiconductors, robotics, new energy vehicles, aerospace, and biomedicine, supported by significant government funding and policy incentives [3][4] - From 2015 to 2022, over $1.3 trillion was invested in priority industries, with nearly 60% allocated to semiconductors and new energy vehicles, indicating a concentrated policy approach [4] Group 2 - The new energy vehicle (NEV) sector has seen remarkable success, with domestic NEVs capturing 80% of the market share in 2022, and companies like BYD ranking second globally in NEV sales [5][6] - High-speed rail has become a textbook success story, with Chinese companies now dominating the market, achieving a 90% share in high-speed rail signaling equipment [6][7] - In the new materials sector, China has significantly increased its production capacity, with a global share of 80% in petrochemical products from 2019 to 2022, and companies like Wanhua Chemical leading in the polyurethane market [7][8] Group 3 - Despite achievements, challenges remain in high-end manufacturing, particularly in semiconductors, where China's market share is only 1.9%, and reliance on imported equipment is high [8][9] - The aerospace sector faces similar issues, with the domestically produced C919 aircraft having only a 60% local content rate, heavily dependent on foreign suppliers for critical components [9][10] - The marine engineering and high-tech shipbuilding sectors also struggle, with less than 30% localization in high-tech ship equipment [10] Group 4 - The rapid advancements have led to some negative consequences, including resource wastage due to excessive government spending, with 30% of semiconductor project funds wasted on inefficient projects [11][12] - Overemphasis on industrial policy has resulted in production capacity outpacing consumer demand, leading to price wars and declining industrial profits [11][12] - In 2022, China's power battery production capacity reached 900 GWh, but actual demand was only 450 GWh, resulting in a 50% surplus [12][13] Group 5 - While China excels in low-end and mid-range markets, it still lags behind international giants in high-end sectors, with R&D investment significantly lower than that of the U.S. [13][14] - Foreign enterprises believe that Chinese competitors will take 5 to 10 years to catch up in technology, particularly in advanced fields like semiconductors and aerospace engines [14][15] - The decline in international scientific collaboration and increased trade tensions pose additional challenges for Chinese companies in sensitive technology areas [15]