强劲内需支撑，印度一季度GDP意外加速至7.4%

Economic Growth - India's GDP grew by 7.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of FY2025, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of 6.6% and up from a previous value of 6.2% [1] - For the entire FY2025, India's economic growth is projected at 6.5%, consistent with the government's February forecast [2] Domestic Consumption and Trade - India's robust economic performance is attributed to strong domestic consumption and relatively low dependence on exports, which has helped mitigate the impacts of fluctuating U.S. trade policies [2] - Currently, India has a trade surplus of nearly $46 billion with the U.S., and there are indications that India may become the next country to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. [2] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of India has cut interest rates to 6% for the second consecutive month, shifting its policy stance to accommodative to stimulate economic growth [3] - Market expectations suggest that the RBI may lower rates again in June [3] Future Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that India's economy will reach $4.187 trillion by 2025, slightly surpassing Japan's $4.186 trillion, making India the world's fourth-largest economy [5] - Analysts predict that India's policy interest rate could drop to 5.5% during the current easing cycle, driven by declining inflation and growth risks [4] Consumption Trends - Consumption accounts for over half of India's economy, with rural areas contributing nearly 40% to overall consumer goods sales in the first quarter of FY2025 [4] Geopolitical Considerations - Despite the positive growth outlook, tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated, which could potentially suppress investment and consumption [4] Market Reaction - Following the economic data release, the yield on India's 10-year government bonds rose by 2 basis points to 6.27% [7]