房地产的宏观叙事正在发生巨变

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies in the real estate sector focus on controlling supply, with measures aimed at reducing future housing supply and promoting high-quality housing development [1][4][18]. Supply Control Measures - The new urban renewal policy emphasizes "no demolition if possible," effectively reducing future supply [1]. - Many cities are implementing immediate sales of newly supplied land to control supply, as the time from land acquisition to sale is longer for pre-sold properties compared to existing ones [1]. - In April, the average land supply floor area in 30 hot cities was 1.94, remaining below 2.0 for nine consecutive months, indicating a trend of controlling supply [2]. Construction and Sales Trends - In April, new housing starts nationwide fell to 48.4 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, marking the lowest monthly figure since 2019 [2]. - From January to April, new housing starts totaled 18 million square meters, only 63% of the new housing transaction volume during the same period [2]. - The new housing sales area has reached a historical low, with inventory turnover periods in hot cities returning to a safe zone of under 18 months [2]. Market Dynamics - The monthly sales decline has decreased to below 3%, with new housing sales area and value dropping by 2.8% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively [4]. - Despite a potential bottoming out in the new housing market, the supply side continues to decline, with new housing starts down by 23.8% in April [4]. - The ongoing decline in new housing starts has persisted for 34 months, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [4]. Inventory and Developer Strategies - The inventory of 50 typical listed real estate companies has decreased for three consecutive years, with completed inventory rising by 5.6 percentage points to 27%, the highest in five years [5]. - Developers are slowing down construction due to reduced inventory turnover rates, with private developers experiencing negative growth in completed inventory [5]. - The shift from high turnover to high-quality housing has been successful, with strict regulations on pre-sale funds ensuring project completion [6]. Quality Housing Trends - The average turnover rate for new homes in key cities reached 37% in April, up 13 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a demand for improved housing quality [8]. - The market for improved housing products is characterized by rapid turnover and competition among developers, leading to a focus on quick sales rather than detailed project development [9]. Price Dynamics - The sales value decline has been less severe than the sales area decline, suggesting a potential rebound in housing prices, with new home prices rising by 3.1% and 1.6% in January-February and January-March, respectively [10]. - However, the overall price stability of new homes is decreasing, with the average price increase slowing to only 0.3% year-on-year in the first four months of the year [10]. Secondary Market Changes - The second-hand housing market is experiencing an increase in listings and a widening price decline, with a 0.4% drop in the price index for 70 cities in April [12]. - The influx of high-quality new homes is impacting the second-hand market, leading to increased listings of larger units and luxury properties [12]. Government and Developer Initiatives - The government and developers are both exploring high-quality housing solutions, with developers focusing on upper limits of quality and the government setting minimum standards [13][14]. - The national strategy for "good housing" aims to enhance supply-side reforms and improve the overall quality of housing, including public facilities and building standards [18][19]. Future Outlook - The transition from asset-driven to consumption-driven housing markets is expected to enhance the utility value of homes, making them more accessible to the general public [21][22]. - The focus on improving spatial value and matching housing with industry and services is anticipated to stabilize the real estate market in the long term [22].