甲醇：供应压力显现，价格承压运行

Group 1 - The methanol market is showing a weakening trend, with port inventory slightly rebounding after two months of significant depletion, leading to expectations of continued inventory accumulation [1] - The basis for the 2509 contract has weakened from 150 CNY/ton to 40 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline in both basis and absolute port prices [1] - Despite a decrease in Iranian shipments due to lower price willingness and maintenance, South American shipments are increasing, maintaining an import expectation of 1.3 million tons in June, indicating ongoing import pressure [1] Group 2 - Domestic coal-to-methanol plants are operating at high profit margins, but seasonal maintenance in Q1 limited production, leading to reduced supply and accelerated inventory depletion at ports [2] - As the second quarter progresses, maintenance returns to methanol plants, and despite high profits, domestic methanol prices are experiencing a significant collapse due to high imports and weak macroeconomic conditions [2] - While coal-to-methanol plants are not currently losing money, gas-based plants may be facing losses [2] Group 3 - The upstream methanol production has been limited this year, while downstream demand, such as acetic acid, is gradually being realized, with new production expected but potentially underperforming due to poor profitability [3] - Coal prices have stabilized in the range of 600-700 CNY/ton after two years of decline, with some coal mines in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia reducing output, indicating a potential shift to a fluctuating price range [3] - The methanol market outlook is slightly favorable, with expectations for inventory accumulation to be realized and potential buying opportunities when external supply decreases [3]