2025年下半年，4大“降价潮”要来了！你准备好了吗？

Economic Overview - The domestic economy is entering a deflationary cycle starting in 2024, with the CPI index remaining low, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% in Q1 of this year, primarily due to a sluggish real economy and reduced consumer demand [1][2]. Wage and Employment Trends - Wage income is expected to decline, leading to a significant impact on consumer spending [2][4]. - Many companies are experiencing reduced profitability, resulting in layoffs and salary cuts as a survival strategy, with a notable increase in job seekers, particularly among the 12.22 million new graduates this year [4]. Real Estate Market - Housing prices are projected to continue their downward trend into 2025, driven by poor sales performance of new homes and an increase in second-hand home listings, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou [6][4]. - Real estate companies are likely to resort to price reductions to clear inventory, further exacerbating the decline in property values [6]. Automotive Industry - The automotive market is witnessing widespread price reductions, with domestic mid-range cars dropping by 15,000 to 20,000 yuan and imported luxury cars seeing declines of up to 100,000 yuan [8]. - Factors contributing to this trend include increased competition from new energy vehicles, reduced purchasing power among middle-class families, and overcapacity in the automotive sector due to new entrants like Xiaomi and Huawei [8]. Banking Sector - Major state-owned banks are accelerating interest rate cuts, with the three-year deposit rate dropping from 3.15% to 1.9%, significantly affecting interest income for savers, especially the elderly [11]. - The central bank aims to encourage spending and investment by lowering deposit rates, while also hoping to stimulate loan demand by reducing financing costs for businesses and homebuyers [11].