公开挑战美元霸权！欧洲的野心真能实现吗？

Core Viewpoint - European officials are expressing a desire for the euro to seize the opportunity to replace the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency amid fluctuations in U.S. assets due to Trump's tariff policies [1][2]. Group 1: Euro's Current Position and Potential - The dollar remains the most widely used reserve currency, accounting for nearly 60% of global foreign exchange reserves, while the euro holds about 20% [1]. - The dollar index has dropped over 8% since the beginning of the year, indicating a shift in geopolitical dynamics that may provide an opportunity for the euro's elevation [2]. - ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the changing geopolitical landscape could open doors for the euro to play a larger international role [2]. Group 2: Strategies for Elevating the Euro - Lagarde outlined three key strategies to enhance the euro's global influence: 1. Commitment to open trade and a strong geopolitical foundation [3]. 2. Strengthening the economic base through deeper and more liquid capital markets [3]. 3. Upholding the rule of law and political unity to withstand external pressures [3]. - An increased reserve currency status for the euro could lead to lower borrowing costs for European governments and protection from exchange rate fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions on Euro's Future - ECB officials, including Lagarde, see potential for the euro as a safe haven amid declining confidence in the U.S. [6]. - Market observers express mixed views on the euro's ability to capture a larger share of global foreign exchange reserves, with some optimistic about its prospects [6][7]. - Nomura's chief European economist noted that as investors seek diversification away from the dollar, the euro could gain more attention, predicting it may rise to 1.20 against the dollar by year-end [6]. - However, some analysts argue that the euro faces significant obstacles, including political fragmentation among member states and reliance on U.S. security frameworks, which limit its global influence [7].