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通胀保持温和!美国4月核心PCE同比2.5%,创四年多来新低
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-30 14:17

Core Insights - The latest PCE data indicates a slowdown in consumer spending in April 2023, aligning with a moderate inflation rate, suggesting a potential economic deceleration [1][2]. Inflation Metrics - The PCE price index for April showed a year-over-year increase of 2.1%, down from 2.3% previously and below the expected 2.2%. Month-over-month, it rose by 0.1%, consistent with prior expectations [2][3]. - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-over-year, marking the lowest level since March 2021, and was revised from a previous estimate of 2.7% [2][3]. Consumer Spending and Income - Real consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by only 0.1% in April, following a 0.7% rise in March. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.2% month-over-month, down from 0.7% [2][3]. - Nominal wages and salaries continued to grow, increasing by 0.5% for the third consecutive month, while the savings rate reached 4.9%, the highest in nearly a year [2][3]. Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed significantly by 46% in April to $87.6 billion, with imports decreasing by $68.4 billion to $276.1 billion and exports increasing by $6.3 billion to $188.5 billion [8]. - The Trump administration is considering a "Tariff B Plan" to impose tariffs of up to 15% on a wide range of goods, which could impact consumer spending and inflation [6][9]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark overnight interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% since December 2022, with market expectations indicating a potential rate cut of 50 basis points by the end of the year [11][12]. - Economists predict that the negative effects of tariffs may become evident in the June data, influencing the Fed's future decisions on interest rates [10][15].