美元霸权松动黄金需求创新高，全球资产配置格局迎来重大转变

Group 1 - The traditional trust in the US dollar is gradually eroding, leading to a significant shift in global asset allocation towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - As of the end of 2024, the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves is projected to drop to 57.8%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the end of 2023, marking the lowest level since 1995 [3] - Major credit rating agencies have downgraded the US credit rating, with Moody's lowering it from Aaa to Aa1, citing deteriorating long-term fiscal conditions as a key factor [3] Group 2 - Gold is re-establishing its core position in the global financial system, with global gold demand expected to reach 4,974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 4,899 tons in 2023, driven by strong central bank purchases and rising investment demand [4] - Goldman Sachs predicts that central bank demand for gold will continue for at least two more years, potentially pushing gold prices to $4,000 per ounce [4] - A survey by Kitco indicates that 58% of retail investors expect gold prices to exceed $3,000 per ounce by 2025, reflecting strong market confidence in gold's long-term value [4] Group 3 - Global capital is increasingly flowing into safe-haven assets like gold, with a notable reduction in investment in US assets, which have decreased from over 90% to approximately 79% in recent years [5] - The allocation towards currencies such as the renminbi, euro, and yen has increased as investors seek opportunities outside the US [5]