全球关税紧张局势下非洲开发银行下调非洲经济增长预期

Core Insights - The African Development Bank (AfDB) has revised down its economic growth forecasts for Africa, projecting a growth rate of 3.9% in 2025, down by 0.2 percentage points from earlier estimates, and 4.0% in 2026, down by 0.4 percentage points [2] - The downward revision is attributed to increased global economic challenges, including new tariffs imposed by the U.S. and retaliatory measures from trade partners, which are expected to negatively impact African exports [2] - Despite these challenges, 21 African countries are expected to achieve a real GDP growth rate exceeding 5% in 2025, with Ethiopia, Niger, Rwanda, and Senegal projected to meet or exceed the 7% growth threshold necessary for poverty reduction and inclusive growth [2] Economic Growth Projections - The real GDP per capita in Africa is expected to grow from 0.9% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025, with a potential increase to 1.7% in 2026, although these figures have been revised down from earlier predictions of 1.8% and 2.2% respectively [3] - The report emphasizes that the growth outlook for per capita GDP will vary depending on the severity of the economic shocks, highlighting the need for resilient high economic growth rates as a policy priority for African nations [3] Regional Growth Trends - East Africa is projected to lead the continent's growth, with GDP expected to rise from 4.3% in 2024 to 5.9% in both 2025 and 2026 [3] - Central Africa's growth is anticipated to slow from 4.4% in 2023 to 4.0% in 2024 and further down to 3.2% in 2025 [3] - North Africa's GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.6% in 2024, increasing slightly to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026 [3] - Southern Africa's growth rate is estimated at 1.9% in 2024, rising to 2.2% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026 [3]