山西汾酒(600809)：公司应对外部环境较为从容 专注于组织、团队、信息化等自身能力提升

Company Overview - The company recently held its annual shareholder meeting to discuss its current operational status [1] Product Line Strategy - The company has developed a comprehensive plan for its four product lines, aiming for each to achieve over 10 billion yuan in revenue. The product lines include Guo Fen, Lao Bai Fen, Qing Hua 20, and Qing Hua 26 and above, with a resource allocation ratio of 1:3:3:3. Guo Fen focuses on quantity control, while Lao Bai Fen has seen rapid growth after establishing brand value. The company plans to upgrade Lao Bai Fen this year, targeting over 10 billion yuan in sales within 2-3 years. Qing Hua 20 is identified as the main growth driver, and the Qing Hua 26+30 combination aims for competitive pricing in the 600-1000 yuan range. The marketing strategy for Qing Hua 26 includes a "1+4+1" model to enhance high-end product development through channel alliances [2] National Expansion Strategy - The company is advancing its nationalization strategy 2.0, focusing on deepening its presence in the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area, with growth targets exceeding the national average. Strategies include category leadership, innovative drinking scenarios, and cultural empowerment. The "Fen Xiang Li Yu" initiative is enhancing channel management, establishing clear roles and responsibilities for agents and terminals, with 889,000 active terminals currently. Future plans include improving online expense reimbursement for timeliness and traceability [3] Market Outlook - In the short term, market activity is expected to remain subdued in Q2, but the company anticipates maintaining a degree of resilience in its financial reports. The company has been enhancing its sales organization and team, with a focus on local recruitment for business roles. This shift is expected to improve local sales capabilities. Despite external market uncertainties, the company has room for adjustment, prioritizing market health and stable pricing for core products [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak mid-to-high-end liquor consumption during the off-season, the company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025/26 down by 1.8% and 3.7% to 13.1 billion and 13.9 billion yuan, respectively. The target price remains at 228 yuan, corresponding to 21/20 times P/E for 2025/26, while the current price reflects 17/16 times P/E, indicating a 24% upside potential. The company maintains an outperform rating in the industry [5]