邓正红能源软实力：欧佩克联盟加速增产将承受油价深度回调以换取市场再平衡

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential increase in oil production by OPEC, which raises concerns about the dilution of oil's soft power value and the impact on oil prices, leading to a downward trend in international oil prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: OPEC Production Decisions - OPEC is considering increasing production in July, potentially exceeding the previously set daily increase of 410,000 barrels, which could undermine market trust in supply discipline [4]. - The current oil market appears balanced, but increasing production could lead to a price drop of approximately 10%, with WTI crude potentially falling to between $53 and $55 per barrel [2][4]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks, including those from Russia and Iran, continue to provide some support for oil prices despite the weakening spot market [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Predictions - The global oil surplus has expanded to 2.2 million barrels per day, necessitating price adjustments to stimulate supply responses and restore market balance [2][4]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that oil prices may fall below $60 per barrel by the end of the year due to the continuous loss of supply soft power and weak demand recovery [1][5]. - The increase in short positions by hedge funds against Brent crude oil indicates a growing market pessimism regarding demand [3][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-side soft power imbalance and strategic miscalculations are leading to a dilution of oil's value, as OPEC's decision to accelerate production may not align with the weak demand backdrop [4][5]. - Economic pressures, such as weak U.S. GDP data and ongoing trade tensions, are suppressing consumer demand for fuel, contributing to a negative outlook for the demand side [4][5]. - The article highlights the need for OPEC to recalibrate its supply strategy to balance market share protection and price stability, while also addressing demand-side challenges [5].