“保楼市”还是“保实体经济”？国家做出选择，房价接下来走势更明了

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from a focus on property investment to prioritizing the real economy, with a clear indication that housing is no longer viewed as a guaranteed wealth generator [1][3][15]. Policy Shift - The focus of national policy has shifted from prioritizing the real estate market to emphasizing the real economy, with mentions of "real estate" in economic meetings dropping by 60% compared to five years ago, while "technology innovation" and "real economy" have doubled in mention [3][4]. - The government is adopting a dual strategy: supporting the real estate market while simultaneously providing financial support to the real economy, with a projected 22% increase in funding for chip research in 2024 [4][6]. Market Logic Change - The approach to real estate regulation has evolved from "stimulating the market" to "stabilizing prices," focusing on risk prevention, maintaining expectations, and reducing financialization [6][7][9]. - The government is actively working to prevent a hard landing in the housing market by converting inventory homes into affordable housing [6]. New Market Dynamics - A clear "Matthew Effect" is emerging in the housing market, where prime properties in first-tier cities are appreciating, while second and third-tier cities are experiencing significant declines, with some areas seeing price drops of up to 60% [11][12]. - Over 90% of properties have lost their investment value, driven by factors such as demographic shifts, the rise of the rental market, and changing perceptions of property as an investment [11][12]. Recommendations for Individuals - Individuals are advised to view housing as a consumer good rather than an asset, with a focus on retaining properties in core urban areas while divesting from older or less desirable properties [13][14]. - The emphasis is on targeting prime locations in major cities, as these properties are more likely to retain value and attract higher-tier buyers [14].