凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司：聚水潭300%负债率下的上市豪赌

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jushuitan, is facing significant financial challenges as it attempts to go public for the fourth time on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 300% and reliance on tax losses to show profitability, raising doubts about its sustainability [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Jushuitan reported a net profit of 11 million yuan, primarily due to over 90 million yuan in tax credits from past losses, while actual operating losses reached 62 million yuan, indicating an unsustainable profit model [3]. - The deferred tax assets recognized in 2024 lack reasonable explanation, leading to accusations of "window dressing" in financial statements [3]. Debt and Cash Flow Issues - The company is under pressure from 3.144 billion yuan in preferred stock redemption, which will trigger buyback clauses if it fails to go public by the end of 2025 [4]. - As of the end of 2024, Jushuitan's cash reserves stood at only 1.085 billion yuan, with annual operating cash inflow below 300 million yuan, risking cash flow disruption if buybacks commence [4]. Market Challenges - The Chinese e-commerce SaaS ERP market is projected to grow from 3.1 billion yuan in 2024 to only 8.3 billion yuan by 2029, insufficient to support Jushuitan's valuation of 6 billion yuan [5]. - The company's core functionalities are highly similar to competitors like Kingdee and Weimob, with insufficient investment in cutting-edge technologies, while major players like Alibaba Cloud offer free basic ERP services to over 10 million merchants, leaving Jushuitan with only 88,400 customers [5]. Capital Market Trust Issues - Major institutions, including Goldman Sachs, have withdrawn their support, with shareholders cashing out over 300 million yuan from 2021 to 2023, further eroding confidence in the company [5]. - The founder's stock freeze incident has also contributed to the decline in investor trust [5]. Future Strategies - Jushuitan plans to use IPO proceeds for technology development and market expansion, but without establishing differentiated barriers in niche areas or accelerating cross-border business transformation, even a successful IPO may not resolve the inherent limitations of the industry and pressure from larger competitors [6]. - The upcoming IPO represents not only a fundraising effort but also a critical battle to maintain capital trust [6].