生猪市场：端午后猪价或震荡走跌，建议反弹抛空

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig prices experienced an initial rise followed by a decline, influenced by active market conditions and supply pressures, suggesting a recommendation to short on rebounds in the long term [1] Price Trends - In Henan, the average price increased by 0.26 yuan to 14.62 yuan/kg, with a weekly high of 14.78 yuan/kg - In Sichuan, the average price rose by 0.06 yuan to 14.16 yuan/kg, with a weekly high of 14.4 yuan/kg - In Guangdong, the average price increased by 0.12 yuan to 15.38 yuan/kg [1][1][1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The official sow inventory in April was 40.38 million heads, showing a slight month-on-month decline but still 3.5% above normal levels - Increased sow capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental outlook for 2025 compared to 2024 - The theoretical output of piglets is expected to remain high until the third quarter of 2025, necessitating attention to the rhythm of market supply and sentiment [1][1][1] Consumption Environment - The overall consumption environment is weak, with changing consumer habits negatively impacting pork consumption - Year-on-year, pork consumption is declining, and month-on-month, the impact of holiday consumption on prices should be monitored [1][1][1] Market Outlook - Short-term spot performance is weak, but the window for further inventory accumulation is not fully closed, limiting the downside potential for prices - In the long term, under supply pressure, it is advised not to take long positions, and there is no need to aggressively short in the near term; the focus should be on shorting on rebounds while waiting for better price levels [1][1][1]