HKEX(00388) 格隆汇·2025-06-01 02:12Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in April, with active trading and positive expectations for continued growth in the exchange's performance [1][2]. Market Segments Cash Market - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 10% and 14% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The monthly average daily turnover (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 274.7 billion, showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% but a year-on-year increase of 144.7% [1]. - Northbound capital's monthly ADT was HKD 973.2 billion, with a month-on-month decrease of 20% and a year-on-year increase of 20%. Southbound capital's monthly ADT was HKD 191.1 billion, with a month-on-month decrease of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 145% [1]. Derivatives Market - Futures trading volume increased month-on-month, while options trading volume decreased. The average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 841,000 contracts, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.6% and a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. The ADV for options was 1,003,000 contracts, showing a month-on-month decrease of 6.0% but a year-on-year increase of 14.0% [1]. Commodity Market - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw an increase in trading volume both month-on-month and year-on-year, with an average daily trading volume of 880,000 contracts, up 10.6% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year [2]. Primary Market - The IPO scale in the Hong Kong stock market decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with two new stocks listed in April, totaling HKD 2.9 billion, down 73% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year [2]. Investment Income - Investment income rates related to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. As of the end of April, the 6-month HIBOR was 4.03%, the 1-month HIBOR was 3.95%, the overnight HIBOR was 4.50%, and the US overnight bank funding rate was 4.33% [2]. Macroeconomic Environment Domestic Factors - The overall economic sentiment in China declined, with both supply and demand weakening. The manufacturing PMI for April was 49.0%, down 1.50 percentage points month-on-month. New orders and new export orders indices were 49.2% and 44.7%, down 2.60 and 4.30 percentage points respectively [3]. International Factors - The pause in interest rate cuts has led to tightening liquidity overseas, with the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%. The market expects no rate cuts until June 2025, with a projected 25 basis point cut in September 2025 and a total of 50 basis points for the year [3]. Investment Recommendations - As of the end of April, the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio was 30.52x, indicating a high cost-performance ratio. The company is expected to see revenue and other income of HKD 29.1 billion, 30.6 billion, and 32.1 billion for 2025-2027, with net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 17.3 billion, 18.2 billion, and 19.2 billion respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 29.2x, 27.7x, and 26.2x [4].