投下“重磅炸弹”！欧佩克+连续第三次大幅增产，油价还得跌？

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ countries have decided to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, continuing a trend of significant production increases that have led to a decline in international oil prices to a four-year low [1][4]. Group 1: Production Decisions - OPEC+ has agreed to a third consecutive month of production increases, with a total increase of 411,000 barrels per day [4]. - The decision reflects a stable global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, evidenced by low oil inventories [4]. - The production adjustments will be monitored in future meetings, with a commitment to fully compensate for any overproduction starting from January 2024 [5]. Group 2: Market Impact - The increase in production has contributed to a downward trend in international oil prices, with WTI crude falling below $61 per barrel and Brent crude around $62 [8]. - Analysts express concerns about an oversupply in the market, predicting that the global oil market will remain in a state of excess supply through 2025 [4][12]. - Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, forecast a continued decline in oil prices through 2025-2026 due to increased production and trade tensions affecting demand [12]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The shift in OPEC+ strategy marks a departure from years of coordinated production cuts aimed at supporting oil prices [4][6]. - Saudi Arabia and Russia are leading the charge to reclaim market share lost to competitors, including U.S. shale producers [7]. - Future meetings are scheduled to reassess production levels, indicating ongoing adjustments based on market conditions [7].