宴席市场，“喝不动”白酒了？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing challenges faced by the wedding banquet market for liquor, particularly white wine, due to rising "return wine rates" and declining demand [1][2][3] - The wedding banquet market has historically accounted for about 50% of liquor consumption in banquet settings, but this year, the number of wedding banquets is not increasing as rumored, with a demand decline of approximately 15% to 20% [2][3] - The decline in wedding banquets is indicative of broader demographic trends, including decreasing marriage and birth rates, which suggest that the liquor industry will face greater pressure in future banquet markets [3][10] Group 2 - Data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs indicates a significant drop in marriage registrations, with 181 million couples registered in the first quarter of this year, down from 196.9 million last year, reflecting a decrease of 15.9 million couples [4][5] - The trend of declining marriage rates has persisted for several years, with projections indicating that the number of marriages this year may not exceed 600 million, further impacting the banquet market [6][10] - The number of newborns has also been declining, with the birth rate dropping significantly since 2019, suggesting that the challenges in the wedding market are compounded by a shrinking population [9][10] Group 3 - The rising "return wine rate" is attributed to several factors, including increased car ownership leading to guests being less willing to drink, a faster-paced lifestyle reducing the time spent at banquets, and a shift in health consciousness among younger consumers [12][15][16][17] - The introduction of alternative beverages like tea and juice at banquets has further diminished the appeal of white wine, indicating a disconnect between traditional liquor offerings and modern consumer preferences [18][19] - The changing dynamics of banquet decision-making, with younger generations favoring smaller, more intimate gatherings, is reshaping the liquor consumption landscape, challenging the traditional reliance on larger, more elaborate events [20][21][24] Group 4 - The liquor industry is responding to these trends by relaxing banquet size requirements to encourage consumption, but this may lead to a decrease in overall liquor sales as smaller gatherings typically consume less [23][24] - The cultural shift towards minimalistic celebrations undermines the traditional role of liquor in social gatherings, potentially leading to a long-term decline in white wine consumption [25][26] - The industry must recognize these changes and adapt its strategies to address the evolving consumer landscape and the implications for future liquor consumption [26]