邓正红能源软实力：欧佩克连续第三个月增产 从“捍卫油价”转向“主动压价”

Core Insights - OPEC has increased oil production for the third consecutive month by 411,000 barrels per day, shifting from "defending oil prices" to "actively lowering prices," which has deepened internal rifts and diluted its soft power value [1][2] - Saudi Arabia has ignored opposition from member countries like Russia and has pushed for this increase, revealing the failure of the alliance's coordination mechanism [1][2] - This strategy may lead to a significant drop in oil prices, potentially falling to the $50 per barrel range, creating a vicious cycle of "increased production - price drop - fiscal deterioration" [1][2] Group 1: Internal Governance and Soft Power - The punitive increase in production has exposed deepening divisions within the alliance, with countries like Russia and Algeria advocating for a halt to production increases [2] - Saudi Arabia's actions highlight the limitations of its leadership, sacrificing price control to maintain organizational discipline, which undermines the soft power foundation of the alliance [2] - The current global oil surplus is estimated at 2.2 million barrels per day, and the July production increase is expected to exacerbate this surplus, potentially triggering a significant price correction [2] Group 2: Strategic Misjudgment and External Dependencies - Saudi Arabia's production increase partly aligns with U.S. demands to lower oil prices, reflecting its passive position in geopolitical dynamics [3] - OPEC faces three major challenges: the erosion of pricing power due to financial instruments, decision-making constraints imposed by major power politics, and the erosion of rule-making authority as Western nations restructure energy regulations [3] Group 3: Pathways for Soft Power Reconstruction - OPEC needs to move beyond the simplistic logic of "increase-decrease" in production and build a composite soft power system [3] - Recommendations include enhancing internal governance resilience, establishing transparent production data mechanisms, and balancing short-term and long-term values [3] - There is a need to diversify energy sources and accelerate energy transformation to reduce systemic risks associated with oil price dependence [3]