全球稀土的真正战场不在地下，中国拥有无与伦比的优势

Core Insights - The true control of the global mineral supply chain lies not in ownership of underground resources but in the mastery of refining capabilities [1] - China's near-monopoly in the rare earth refining sector has been highlighted, with a significant price surge observed following export controls [1] Group 1: Market Concentration - Global rare earth mineral trade is extremely concentrated, with 89% of trade relationships relying on a few suppliers [3] - Specifically, 43% of trade relationships depend on five or fewer suppliers, while 46% rely on three or fewer suppliers [3] - Key emerging and developing economies dominate the extraction of critical raw materials, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo supplying 73% of cobalt ore and Guinea supplying 70% of aluminum ore [3] Group 2: China's Dominance in Refining - Despite the dispersion of raw material extraction across various countries, nearly all processing and refining stages are concentrated in China [3] - China supplies 65% of the world's refined lithium and nearly 80% of refined cobalt, controlling over 90% of global refined rare earth supply [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - China's dominant position in the mineral supply chain has been systematically built over the past two decades, focusing on facilities and technologies for converting raw materials into usable inputs for batteries and green technologies [6] - Geopolitical tensions have intensified reliance on Chinese mineral supply chains, with over 90% of U.S. rare earth imports coming from China in 2023, up from 70% in 2013 [6] Group 4: Future Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S.-Ukraine mineral agreement is strategically significant but unlikely to alter the global mineral supply landscape in the short term, as the bottleneck lies in refining capacity rather than extraction [7] - Ukraine possesses about 5% of global rare earth reserves and significant lithium and titanium reserves, but the increase in critical mineral supply remains a distant prospect [7] - Establishing rare earth refining in Ukraine will take years and may require a comprehensive overhaul of the global supply chain [7]