中国“未说出口的立场”：比特币可以作为储备资产？

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Institute (IMI) has sparked speculation about a potential shift in China's stance on Bitcoin by sharing a report that discusses Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, amidst ongoing strict regulations against cryptocurrency in China [1][3][11]. Group 1: IMI's Role and Background - IMI is affiliated with Renmin University and comprises members from key government institutions, making its research often interpreted as reflecting official policy directions [3]. - The institute frequently comments on sensitive topics such as the internationalization of the Renminbi and responses to financial sanctions, which positions its views as indicators of potential policy shifts [3][11]. Group 2: Bitcoin's Unique Characteristics - The report highlights Bitcoin's evolution as a currency reliant on electricity, contrasting it with traditional hard currencies like gold, which require physical extraction [5]. - Bitcoin's "proof-of-work" mechanism ensures its legitimacy and transparency, providing a unique status akin to gold's historical significance [5][6]. Group 3: Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset - The report argues that Bitcoin can serve as a hedge for central banks in developing countries, particularly those affected by the "weaponization" of the dollar [4][10]. - Despite Bitcoin's high volatility, it has shown potential as a protective asset during specific crises, such as bank failures and geopolitical tensions [6][10]. Group 4: Long-term Value and Inflation Hedge - Bitcoin's capped supply (21 million coins) and halving mechanism theoretically position it as a potential inflation hedge, similar to gold [6][10]. - The report suggests that Bitcoin's price movements are primarily influenced by inflation-related news, making it a useful diversification tool in investment portfolios [6][10]. Group 5: Geopolitical Considerations - Bitcoin's decentralized nature allows it to bypass financial sanctions, providing a unique advantage over traditional assets [7][10]. - The report notes a significant correlation between Bitcoin's price volatility and geopolitical risk indices, reinforcing its potential role as a hedge against geopolitical instability [7][10]. Group 6: China's Strategic Considerations - While China maintains strict regulations on cryptocurrency, the unique attributes of Bitcoin may be appealing from a national strategic perspective, especially in the context of diversifying foreign reserves and reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency [10][11]. - The IMI's endorsement of the report indicates ongoing discussions within China's policy circles regarding Bitcoin's strategic value and potential applications [11].