This Monster Dividend Growth Stock Is Up 50% So Far This Year

Core Viewpoint - Philip Morris International has achieved a 50% total return in 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index, which remains flat this year [1]. Group 1: Business Transformation - The company has successfully pivoted from traditional cigarettes to alternative nicotine products, recognizing the global decline in cigarette usage [4]. - Philip Morris holds a dominant position in the heat-not-burn category with its Iqos brand, capturing a 77% volume share in its operating markets [4]. - In the nicotine pouch segment, the company leads with its Zyn brand, exhibiting similar market share characteristics [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the last quarter, 42% of the company's revenue and 44% of gross profit were derived from smoke-free products, indicating a significant shift in its revenue composition [5]. - Overall revenue has increased to $38 billion over the last 12 months, reflecting the successful transition to alternative nicotine products [5]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which has fallen from around 110 to under 100, is expected to enhance revenue in U.S. dollar terms for Philip Morris, as it primarily operates outside the U.S. [6]. - The company is positioned to benefit from this currency trend, which has contributed to the stock price increase at the start of 2025 [6]. Group 4: Traditional Tobacco Outlook - Despite the decline in cigarette usage globally, traditional tobacco products are still expected to generate cash flow for the company, particularly outside of China and the U.S. [9]. - In the last quarter, gross profit from combustibles grew by 5.3% year over year, demonstrating the continued viability of traditional tobacco in international markets [9][10]. Group 5: Valuation and Future Prospects - The stock's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has increased to 24 from 14 a year ago, and the dividend yield has decreased to 3% from nearly 6% [13]. - This rising valuation suggests that the extraordinary 50% returns may not be sustainable, but the stock remains a viable investment due to its solid dividend yield and growth potential [14]. - The combination of Iqos and Zyn growth, along with pricing power in traditional cigarettes, positions the company for potential double-digit revenue and earnings growth in the coming years [14][15].