GANYUAN FOODS CO.(SZ:002991) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-06-01 12:35Event Overview - In FY24, the company achieved revenue of 2.257 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 376 million, up 14.32% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 341 million, an increase of 16.91% year-on-year. In Q4 24, revenue was 652 million, up 22.05% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 99 million, down 13.91% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 93 million, down 10.40% year-on-year. In Q1 25, revenue was 504 million, down 13.99% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 53 million, down 42.21% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 46 million, down 45.14% year-on-year [1]. Analysis and Judgment - The company saw strong growth in the comprehensive nut and bean series, with revenue from various product lines in FY24 as follows: comprehensive nuts and beans 705 million (+39.80%); green pea series 524 million (+12.56%); sunflower seeds 302 million (+10.48%); broad beans 277 million (+19.72%); other series 439 million (+21.17%); and other businesses 10 million (-3.84%) [2]. - By region, revenue in FY24 was as follows: East China 658 million (+45%); Southwest 365 million (+49%); Central China 339 million (+17%); e-commerce 239 million (+11%); North China 235 million (-28%); South China 160 million (+22%); Northwest 97 million (+2%); Northeast 71 million (-9%); overseas 83 million (+1762%); and other businesses 10 million (-4%) [2]. Q1 25 Revenue Pressure - Revenue in Q1 25 faced pressure due to several factors: 1) significant reduction in low-priced gift box live-streaming business during the Spring Festival to ensure healthy development of e-commerce; 2) decline in traditional supermarket business; and 3) timing differences of the Spring Festival leading to a high revenue base in the same period last year. Comparing Q4 24 and Q1 25, revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, indicating stability [3]. Cost and Profitability - The company's gross margin for FY24, Q4 24, and Q1 25 was 35.46%, 35.14%, and 34.32%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.78, 0.90, and 1.07 percentage points. The decline in gross margin was primarily due to significant promotional efforts during the year-end festival and a substantial increase in procurement costs for key raw materials like palm oil since Q1 25 [4]. - On the expense side, the company's expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses in FY24 were 12.67%, 3.75%, 1.42%, and -0.50%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +1.18, -0.03, +0.17, and +0.33 percentage points. In Q1 25, these ratios were 17.34%, 4.87%, 1.23%, and -0.35%, with year-on-year changes of +4.24, +1.39, +0.17, and +0.22 percentage points. The increase in sales expense ratio was attributed to the company's expansion into overseas markets and increased brand promotion efforts [5]. - The net profit margin for FY24, Q4 24, and Q1 25 was 16.67%, 15.19%, and 10.47%, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 1.14, 6.34, and 5.11 percentage points. The net profit margin excluding non-recurring items was 15.12%, 14.34%, and 9.09%, with year-on-year declines of 0.68, 5.20, and 5.16 percentage points. The pressure on profitability was due to both cost and expense factors [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to improve profitability quarter by quarter, with a focus on breakthroughs in overseas markets. The significant growth in overseas markets reflects the company's increasing influence and recognition. Despite the pressure from raw material price fluctuations and increased overseas expenses, profitability is anticipated to improve as the overseas market expands [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - Based on the latest financial report, the company's revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted down to 2.598 billion and 3.032 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 revenue at 3.461 billion. The EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 4.38 and 5.13, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 EPS at 5.72. The PE ratios corresponding to the closing price of 64 yuan per share on May 30 are 15, 12, and 11 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [9].