2月6日，A股三大指数小幅下跌。板块上，油气板块集体走强，首华燃气涨超10%领涨，准油股份、洲 际油气涨停，通源石油、科力股份、潜能恒信、中曼石油涨超5%跟涨。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，美东时间2月5日，美国国务院通过"虚拟驻伊朗德黑兰使馆"发布安全警告 称，伊朗全国范围内持续加强安全管控，局势依然紧张。美方敦促美国公民尽快自行离开伊朗，并制定 不依赖美国政府协助的离境计划。如暂时无法离境，应就地避险，储备必要物资，避免示威活动并保持 低调。 中信期货表示，伊朗及俄罗斯地缘局势、OPEC+二季度产量预期等供应端因素仍是2月原油市场关注的 核心，目前地缘溢价仍存，短期重点关注美伊谈判动向及印度对俄罗斯石油购买进展。展望后市，原油 价格或呈震荡走势，基本面仍处供应过剩，但地缘局势对供应预期的潜在扰动较为频繁，地缘溢价可能 仍有摇摆。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） ...

证券之星消息，2月4日休闲食品板块较上一交易日上涨2.4%，万辰集团领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4102.2，上涨0.85%。深证成指报收于14156.27，上涨0.21%。休闲食品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300972 | 万辰集团 | 209.30 | 7.33% | 3.63万 | | 7.39亿 | | 603043 | 广州酒家 | 18.15 | 2.83% | 5.85万 | | 1.05亿 | | 002847 | 盐津铺子 | 69.95 | 2.70% | 4.94万 | | 3.44亿 | | 002956 | 西麦食品 | 28.12 | 2.18% | 2.62万 | | 7255.55万 | | 300973 | 立高食品 | 44.20 | 2.10% | 4.27万 | | 1.87亿 | | 603697 | 有友食品 | 13.78 | 2.07% | 32.96万 | | 4.55亿 | | 6038 ...

证券之星消息，2月3日休闲食品板块较上一交易日下跌0.34%，好想你领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4067.74，上涨1.29%。深证成指报收于14127.1，上涨2.19%。休闲食品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603697 有友食品 | | 2119.98万 | 5.25% | September 1998 691.70万 | 1.71% | -2811.67万 | -6.97% | | 300972 万辰集团 | | 1324.34万 | 2.16% | -4061.23万 | -6.61% | 2736.89万 | 4.45% | | 603777 | 来伊份 | 1024.75万 | 7.70% | 327.05万 | 2.46% | -1351.80万 | -10.16% | | 002557 | 治治食品 | 978.97万 | 3.26% | 471.10万 | ...

投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒持仓环比降低，茅台需求超韧 性超预期—行业点评报告》-2026.1.30 《黄酒复兴趋势持续，期待 2026 年有 新突破—行业点评报告》-2026.1.30 《预制菜国家标准待出台，市场集中 度有望加速提升—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.29 茅台春节需求韧性超预期，大众品底部改善趋势明确 食品饮料 2026 年 02 月 01 日 ——行业周报 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张思敏（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhangsimin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790525080001 | zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：茅台春节需求韧性超预期，大众品底部改善趋势明确 1 月 26 日-1 月 30 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 1.6%，一级子行业排名第 5 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2026 年 1 月 30 日星期五 经济要闻 1. 美国总统特朗普表示将于 4 月访问中国，中国外交部回应称中美关系稳 定发展，符合两国人民共同利益，但关于具体访问信息，目前没有可以提 供的信息。（资料来源：同花顺） 2. 中国人民银行行长潘功胜会见了高盛集团董事长兼首席执行官苏德巍， 双方就全球经济金融形势、中国宏观经济政策、中美经贸关系等议题进行 了交流。（资料来源：同花顺） 3. 商务部在国新办新闻发布会上表示，2026 年将以服务业为重点，扩大市 场准入和开放领域，有序扩大电信、医疗、教育等领域自主开放，推动试 点项目尽早落地。同时，商务部将启动建设国家数字贸易示范区，制定数 字贸易相关标准，推动服务外包数字化转型，培育壮大数字贸易经营主体。 （资料来源：同花顺） 4. 外交部发言人宣布：应国务院总理李强邀请，英国首相斯塔默将于 1 月 28 日至 31 日对中国进行正式访问。（资料来源：同花顺) 5. 国务院国资委在国新办新闻发布会上发布多项重要举措：正在研究起草 关于推动中央企业培育新兴支柱产业的工作文件，引导中央企业实现从重 大项目投资到国有经济整体布局优化的跨 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low position in terms of fundamentals and valuations, presenting significant investment opportunities as the peak season approaches [4][12] - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 1.4% from January 19 to January 23, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.8 percentage points [12][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating a mild recovery trend, and has returned to relatively high levels compared to recent years [4][12] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with strong demand for consumer goods, particularly in the snack segment, which continues to show upward momentum [4][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector is positioned for a recovery as it approaches the peak season, with a notable increase in demand expected during the Spring Festival [4][12] - The sector's current valuation aligns with policy support aimed at boosting consumption, providing a safety margin for investments [4][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage index's performance was weaker than the broader market, with specific sub-sectors like snacks (+6.1%), processed foods (+4.9%), and baked goods (+4.3%) showing relative strength [12][13] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with whole milk powder prices down 13.5% year-on-year as of January 20, 2026 [19][21] - The price of fresh milk was reported at 3.03 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [19][21] Alcohol Industry Data - In December 2025, the production of liquor (65-degree equivalent) decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, with a total production of 354.9 million liters for the year [42][43] Recommended Investment Targets - Key investment opportunities identified include raw milk/dairy products, the snack sector, and the restaurant supply chain, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [4][5][12]

Market Performance - The leisure food sector increased by 0.73% compared to the previous trading day, with "Good Idea" leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66, up 0.79% [1] Individual Stock Performance - "Good Idea" (002582) closed at 16.18, up 6.03% with a trading volume of 698,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.123 billion yuan [1] - "Wancheng Group" (300972) closed at 219.50, up 3.51% with a transaction value of 601 million yuan [1] - "Lihigh Food" (300973) closed at 46.56, up 1.77% with a transaction value of 155 million yuan [1] - "Nanjiao Food" (605339) closed at 18.94, up 1.39% with a transaction value of 47.9721 million yuan [1] - "Purple Lotus Food" (603057) closed at 29.69, up 1.19% with a transaction value of 224 million yuan [1] - "Three Squirrels" (300783) closed at 24.50, up 0.82% with a transaction value of 221 million yuan [1] - "Maiqu'er" (002719) closed at 9.21, up 0.66% with a transaction value of 52.3833 million yuan [1] - "Liangpinpuzi" (603719) closed at 12.12, up 0.33% with a transaction value of 48.7241 million yuan [1] - "Guifaxiang" (002820) closed at 12.63, up 0.32% with a transaction value of 84.7587 million yuan [1] - "Ganyuan Food" (002991) closed at 62.82, up 0.05% with a transaction value of 59.5207 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The leisure food sector experienced a net outflow of 112 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 128 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks shows varying trends, with "Wancheng Group" having a net inflow of 9.9595 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - "Lihigh Food" had a net inflow of 295.83 million yuan from retail investors, while "Salted Fish" (002847) saw a net outflow of 2.19959 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The leisure food sector increased by 1.54% on January 20, with Wancheng Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - Key stocks in the leisure food sector showed significant price movements, with Wancheng Group rising by 6.04% to a closing price of 212.00 [1] Group 2 - The leisure food sector experienced a net outflow of 60.30 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 75.82 million yuan [2] - Notable declines were observed in stocks such as Three Squirrels, which fell by 2.07% to a closing price of 24.58 [2] - The trading volume and turnover for various stocks in the sector varied, with significant activity noted in stocks like Haoxiangni and Ximai Food [2] Group 3 - Haoxiangni had a net inflow of 79.89 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 78.76 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Ximai Food also saw a net inflow of 10.14 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow [3] - The data indicates varying levels of investor interest across different stocks within the leisure food sector, highlighting the dynamics of institutional versus retail investment [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the "Spring Excitement" in the snack sector, indicating a historical high relative win rate of 70% for the food and beverage sector in the 40 days leading up to the Spring Festival [7][16] - The report emphasizes that the "Spring Excitement" is not solely dependent on the annual beta of the food and beverage sector, as structural opportunities still exist despite a long-term adjustment period since 2021 [7][16] - Key catalysts for the upcoming Spring Festival include concentrated demand for gifts and gatherings, which leads to more planned channel stocking, creating a positive feedback loop of expectations and validations [7][16][28] Group 2 - In December, the food and beverage sector underperformed the market by 7.5 percentage points, with a decline of 5.2%, ranking last among 31 primary industries [7][61] - The report notes a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with snacks and soft drinks showing gains while liquor and beer experienced declines [7][61][64] - The absolute and relative valuations of the food and beverage sector are at their lowest since 2010, indicating potential investment opportunities [7][61][64] Group 3 - The report tracks the recovery of consumer confidence, with a 0.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales in December, showing improvement from the previous month [7][63] - It highlights that the liquor sector is facing weak demand and declining prices, with the price adjustments for premium liquor nearing levels seen between 2011 and 2015 [7][63][64] - The report identifies structural differentiation in costs, with some packaging materials and agricultural products experiencing price increases [7][63][64] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include a focus on liquor stocks that have undergone a four-year adjustment period, with potential for a "valuation + performance" double bottom [7][64] - For consumer goods, the report anticipates a moderate increase in industry prices in 2026, with specific recommendations for companies like Anjuke Foods, Qianhe Flavor, and Eastroc Beverage [7][64] - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will provide a favorable environment for growth narratives, particularly in the restaurant supply chain and certain chain formats [7][64]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the consumer sector, particularly in the food and beverage industry, highlighting a seasonal uptick in demand during spring [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of service consumption, particularly in the restaurant and food supply sectors, supported by government initiatives to boost consumer spending [2]. Key Companies and Recommendations - **Snack Food Companies**: - Recommended leading snack brands include Wanchen Group, Yanjinpuzi, Weilong, Youyou, and Ganyuan [1][2]. - **Restaurant Supply Chain**: - Key players include Babi, Anjins, Guoquan, and Yihai International, along with Baoli Foods and Lihai Foods [1][2]. - **Beverage Companies**: - Notable recommendations are Yangyuan Beverage and Dongpeng Beverage [1][2]. Company-Specific Insights - **Babi**: Focused on diversified growth strategies to recreate its business model [2]. - **Anjins**: Confirming a bottoming out phase and restarting growth initiatives [2]. - **Guoquan**: Demonstrating a resilient business model with accelerated store openings [2]. Market Trends and Predictions - Historical data indicates that Q1 typically shows positive performance for many restaurant companies, with factors such as market profitability, delayed corporate events, and favorable seasonal reporting expected to drive growth in Q1 2026 [3]. - The report anticipates a multi-factor resonance effect in Q1 2026, which may positively impact metrics like customer spending, same-store sales, and table turnover rates [3]. Government Initiatives - The government has implemented a series of fiscal and financial policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, which includes measures to clear overdue payments to businesses and ensure wage payments to migrant workers [2]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the consumer sector and its role as a leader in consumption recovery, with key companies showing continued improvement [4]. - Emphasis on valuation switching as a strategy to recommend high-quality stocks such as Ximai, Babi, Guoquan, and Yanjinpuzi [4].