张尧浠：中东局势升级、金价维持三角形趋势调整待攀升

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a triangular trend adjustment, with potential for future price increases despite recent fluctuations and geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Price Movement Summary - Gold prices opened the week at $3354.98, reached a high of $3356.39, and fell to a low of $3245.36, closing at $3291.93, down $65.77 or 1.96% from the previous week's close of $3357.70, with a weekly range of $112.34 [1][3]. - The price is supported by the 10-week moving average, indicating potential for a rebound [1][9]. Market Influences - The U.S. dollar index initially strengthened but later retreated, impacting gold prices [3]. - Concerns over international trade and a decrease in pessimism regarding the U.S. economy contributed to the recent price movements [3][7]. - Geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East, continue to influence market sentiment and gold prices [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices have been in a volatile adjustment phase without breaking below the 5-month moving average, suggesting a potential for continued wide-ranging fluctuations [8]. - The weekly chart shows that despite recent weakness, gold closed above the 10-week moving average, maintaining a bullish outlook [9]. - The daily chart indicates that gold is positioned above the expansion line, with potential to test resistance near $3500 [11]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. manufacturing PMI and construction spending, are expected to influence market sentiment and gold price movements [5][7]. - The Federal Reserve's concerns about stagflation and economic recession risks may lead to expectations of interest rate cuts, which could support gold prices [7].