3年以后3类房子或将一文不值，很多人还不知道，内行已经开始抛售

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is facing a significant downturn due to an oversupply of housing and increasing costs associated with property ownership, leading to a shift in buyer priorities from investment to livability [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - There are 600 million buildings nationwide, indicating a surplus in housing supply [1]. - The likelihood of property tax expansion in the next five years will increase the cost of holding real estate, making speculative investments riskier [1]. Group 2: Changing Buyer Preferences - Young buyers are prioritizing "living well" over "investment value," with 63% of post-95 buyers considering commuting convenience as their top priority [3]. - This shift is leading to a depreciation in certain property values, particularly in three categories of homes that may become worthless in five years [3]. Group 3: Specific Property Challenges - Suburban Properties: - Suffer from industrial hollowing, with many planned areas lacking actual development, leading to low occupancy rates [4]. - Experience "supporting facility desertification," resulting in long commutes and poor living conditions [6]. - Face population outflow, with some areas seeing a 23% loss in registered residents, leading to a surplus of new homes and declining prices [7]. - High-Rise Buildings: - Are becoming "vertical slums," with significant depreciation in value due to high living costs and structural safety concerns [9][11]. - Maintenance costs are disproportionately high, making them unaffordable for average families [9]. - The cost of demolition is often prohibitive, leading to a stagnation in property value [12]. - Seaside Properties: - Have seen prices drop by over 50%, with low occupancy rates during off-seasons leading to maintenance issues [14]. - Owners face high annual maintenance costs, making these properties financially burdensome [16]. - Promised amenities remain unfulfilled, further diminishing property value and livability [17]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to divest from low-quality assets, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, and reinvest in prime locations to maximize rental yields [19]. - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, with a suggested 40% in real estate and the remainder in long-term government bonds and gold ETFs to mitigate risks [20]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The real estate market is undergoing a "淘汰赛" (elimination competition), and reliance on outdated investment strategies is likely to result in losses [21].