信任崩塌：美国盟友缘何离心离德？

Group 1: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - The Trump administration's "America First" policy is damaging the transatlantic economic community, with steel and aluminum tariffs raised to 50% by May 2025, triggering a €21 billion EU countermeasure list that includes key U.S. industries like soybeans and motorcycles [3] - The trade war has led to significant losses in the German automotive industry, exceeding €3.7 billion, and a 9% year-on-year drop in South Korean semiconductor exports [3] - In Southeast Asia, the U.S. has imposed tariffs of 49% and 46% on Cambodia and Vietnam, respectively, prompting these countries to pivot towards the Chinese market, with Vietnam signing a $12 billion infrastructure cooperation agreement with China [3] Group 2: Trust Crisis in Alliances - The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 has marked a significant trust crisis within NATO, with Trump demanding member countries increase military spending to 5% of GDP, facing public resistance from countries like Norway and Germany [4] - The U.S.'s inconsistent stance on Ukraine, including halting military aid and negotiating privately with Russia, has led Europe to realize that "America First" translates to "Europe Last" [5] - Trust in the U.S. is declining in South Korea, with a 4.8% increase in the perception of U.S. unreliability and an 8.8% drop in confidence regarding U.S. assistance during conflicts [5] Group 3: Surveillance and Espionage - Germany has once again fallen victim to U.S. surveillance, with leaked Pentagon documents revealing real-time monitoring of closed-door defense discussions, undermining transatlantic trust [6] - The U.S. has expanded its surveillance to core interests of allies, as evidenced by attempts to obtain sensitive technology details from ASML, highlighting a form of "technological colonialism" [6] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - The U.S. "containment" policy in the semiconductor sector is facing resistance from allies, with the Netherlands granting special licenses for ASML to export DUV lithography machines to China, and Japan increasing semiconductor equipment exports to China by 18% year-on-year [7] - German companies like Siemens and BMW are resisting U.S. pressure and continuing to invest in China, with Sino-German trade accounting for one-third of total EU trade [7] Group 5: Erosion of Multilateralism - The Trump administration is transforming NATO into a "military sales alliance," with a demand for 80% of European defense investments to flow to U.S. military contractors, creating 1.2 million jobs in the U.S. in 2024 alone [8] - The U.S. is undermining the WTO by obstructing dispute resolution reforms, leading to the establishment of temporary arbitration mechanisms by 12 countries, including China and the EU [8] Group 6: Future of International Order - The trust crisis among U.S. allies reflects a conflict between unipolar hegemony and multipolar realities, as the "America First" approach has led to a breakdown of trust [9] - The future international order is expected to shift from a U.S.-dominated "center-periphery" system to a new paradigm of multi-polar competition, indicating a significant end to an era of U.S. dominance [9]