5月百城房价释放了什么信号？6月楼市大局已定！

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is at a critical juncture in 2025, with a stable trend expected to continue, supported by ongoing accommodative policies [1] Market Data Summary - As of May 31, 2025, the overall real estate market shows signs of stabilization, with new home supply significantly decreasing, while transaction volumes remained stable compared to April, and year-on-year growth is positive [3] - In May, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,815 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month increase of 0.30% and a year-on-year increase of 2.56%. Conversely, the average price of second-hand homes was 13,794 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.24% [4] - The new home market is improving, but the second-hand market is still undergoing significant adjustments, indicating that a full recovery in the real estate market will take considerable time [4] Future Market Trends - The market faces considerable pressure in June and the second half of the year, with developers expected to leverage promotional activities to boost transaction volumes [6] - Future market trends will depend on three core dimensions: the sustainability of policies, the economic fundamentals, and corporate behavior. Recent financial policies have lowered mortgage rates, supporting housing demand, and a continued accommodative policy stance is anticipated [7] - The recovery in core cities is seen as a starting point, but sustained recovery will require ongoing policy support and strong economic fundamentals [7]