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中俄大后方生变?普京发狠,中国已经做好打算
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-02 09:42

Strategic Background of Sino-Russian Energy Cooperation - Russia, as the world's second-largest energy exporter, faces significant challenges in its energy market due to Western sanctions following the Ukraine conflict, making China a crucial market for its natural gas exports [1] - The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline project aims to transport 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from Russia's Yamal Peninsula to northeastern and northern China, which is strategically important for both countries [3][4] Mongolia's Miscalculation and Marginalization - Mongolia was initially seen as an ideal transit country for the pipeline but demanded excessive transit fees of $2 to $3 billion annually, nearly half of its GDP, leading to Russian dissatisfaction and a shift towards Kazakhstan for new pipeline discussions [4][8] - Mongolia's diplomatic strategy of aligning with the U.S. and Japan, including signing the Open Skies Agreement, has been perceived as a double-edged sword by both China and Russia [8] - The new Mongolian government's five-year action plan omits the "Power of Siberia 2" project, indicating a potential abandonment of this cooperation opportunity [8] Kazakhstan's Rise as a New Energy Partner - Kazakhstan, rich in oil and gas resources, has become a significant partner for China and Russia, with a new pipeline agreement signed in May 2024 to transport gas from Kostanay to Ust-Kamenogorsk, expected to be operational by 2030 with an annual capacity of 35 billion cubic meters [10][13] - This new pipeline will not only meet northern China's energy needs but also provide 10 billion cubic meters of gas to Kazakhstan, enhancing its energy security and creating job opportunities [10][14] Implications for Sino-Russian Relations - The shift in pipeline routes reflects a strategic understanding between China and Russia, with both countries adapting to changing circumstances while maintaining energy security [13][14] - China's diverse energy supply network mitigates the impact of these changes, ensuring that any energy cooperation must be competitive to attract Chinese investment [14] - The deepening Sino-Russian energy cooperation is expected to strengthen the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's cohesion, with Kazakhstan emerging as a key player in the Central Asian energy market [16]