Chevron Down 16% in 6 Months - Should You Rethink the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Chevron Corporation (CVX) has experienced a significant stock decline of approximately 16% over the past six months, underperforming compared to the S&P 500 and large-cap energy peers like ExxonMobil (XOM) [1][3] Group 1: Operational Challenges - The abrupt halt of Chevron's operations in Venezuela, due to the expiration of its U.S. license on May 27, 2025, has resulted in a loss of approximately 150,000 barrels per day, equating to an annual revenue hit of around $3 billion at $60 oil [4][5] - The proposed $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corporation (HES) has led to increased investor uncertainty, primarily due to stock dilution and ongoing legal disputes with ExxonMobil regarding Hess's stake in the Stabroek block offshore Guyana [6][7] Group 2: Financial Performance - Chevron's recent sales of $47.6 billion reflect a year-over-year decline of 2.3%, with pre-tax profit dropping 30% to $5.6 billion in Q1, driven by a 3% rise in total costs [11] - The company's 2025 EPS estimate has decreased by 34% over the past 60 days, from $10.34 to $6.85, indicating a significant reduction in earnings power and investor confidence [12][10] Group 3: Valuation and Dividend Outlook - Despite the challenges, Chevron's forward 12-month P/E multiple is near 18X, which is higher than ExxonMobil's 15.63X, raising concerns about the justification of this premium given the current operational and legal issues [14] - The ability to sustain meaningful dividend growth is under threat due to the loss of free cash flow from Venezuela, increased reinvestment demands in shale, and financial strain from the Hess acquisition [16] Group 4: Market Sentiment - The overall outlook for Chevron has deteriorated, with Wall Street slashing growth expectations and lowering estimates, leading to a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) [18][19]