From Rust To Rally: Trump's Tariffs Ignite Cleveland-Cliffs Comeback

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Metal Stocks - President Trump's announcement to increase tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% has significantly influenced U.S. metal stocks, strengthening domestic producers by reducing foreign competition and increasing prices [1][2] - Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) stock surged about 33% in pre-market trading following the tariff announcement, while Nucor Corp (NYSE: NUE) shares rose around 13% [2] - United States Steel stock (NYSE:X) increased by 22% over the past week and is up nearly 65% year-to-date [2] Group 2: Cleveland-Cliffs Performance - Cleveland-Cliffs stock has decreased by 66% over the last year and approximately 76% over the past three years, with a 15% revenue decline in the last twelve months [3][4] - The company's price-to-sales (PS) multiple has dropped from 1.1x in 2020 to 0.48x in 2023, currently at 0.2x, indicating potential for upside compared to previous years [4] - For Q1 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs reported revenues of $4.6 billion, up from $4.3 billion in Q4 2024, but incurred a net loss of $483 million, attributed to underutilized assets and low steel prices [5] Group 3: Strategic Responses and Future Outlook - Cleveland-Cliffs plans to temporarily close several facilities and pause capital spending on a transformer facility, expecting to save over $300 million annually [5] - The long-term impact of the tariff increase on metal stocks will depend on the sustainability of the tariffs, global market responses, and domestic production capabilities [6] - Diversification across sectors and stocks is emphasized as vital to mitigate concentration risk, with the Trefis High Quality (HQ) portfolio outperforming major indices with returns exceeding 91% since inception [7]