Cleveland-Cliffs shares are climbing with conviction. What’s behind CLF gains?Trump Iran Pause Sparks Broad Market Relief RallyPresident Donald Trump said early Monday that the U.S. would pause strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days after what he described as productive talks with Tehran, a move that sent oil prices sharply lower and equity futures sharply higher.West Texas Intermediate crude fell over 8% to about $90 a barrel, while Brent crude dropped about 7.9% to roughly $103 Monday ...

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs has experienced a significant decline in share price, losing approximately 22.3% over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs reported an adjusted loss of 43 cents per share, which was better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 62 cents, but worse than the adjusted loss of 68 cents per share in the same quarter the previous year [3]. - Revenues for the quarter were approximately $4,313 million, remaining flat year over year, but missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,620.9 million [3]. - Steelmaking revenues were around $4.15 billion, down about 0.3% year over year, with an average net selling price per net ton of steel products at $993, which is a 2% increase year over year but below the consensus estimate of $1,004 [4]. - External sales volumes for steel products were approximately 3.77 million net tons, down about 1.5% year over year, also falling short of the consensus estimate of 4.01 million net tons [4]. Financial Position - As of the end of Q4, Cleveland-Cliffs had cash and cash equivalents of $57 million, a decrease of about 14% from the prior quarter, while long-term debt decreased by 10% sequentially to $7,253 million [5]. - The company reported total liquidity of $3.3 billion as of December 31, 2025 [5]. Future Outlook - For the full year 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs expects capital expenditures to be around $700 million and SG&A expenses to be approximately $575 million [6]. - The company aims to reduce steel unit costs by about $10 per net ton from 2025 levels, with projected depreciation, depletion, and amortization expenses of roughly $1.1 billion [6]. - Cash pension and other post-employment benefits payments are expected to be around $125 million [6]. Estimate Trends - There has been a downward trend in estimates, with the consensus estimate shifting by -131.11% in the past month [7]. - Cleveland-Cliffs has an average Growth Score of C and a momentum score of C, but a grade of F on the value side, placing it in the bottom 20% for this investment strategy [8]. - The overall aggregate VGM Score for the stock is F, indicating a poor performance across multiple investment strategies [9]. Zacks Rank - Cleveland-Cliffs holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting expectations of below-average returns in the coming months due to the downward trend in estimates [10].

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of the U.S. dollar and rising oil prices are negatively impacting the copper and steel sectors, leading to significant losses for companies like Freeport-McMoRan Inc and Cleveland-Cliffs Inc [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) has seen its stock price decrease by 5.3%, trading at $56.19, marking its third consecutive loss of approximately 5% or more [2] - The shares of FCX have dropped 19.6% from their all-time high of $69.75 on February 25, with support observed at the 80-day moving average [2] - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) is down 6%, trading at $9.24, which increases its year-to-date loss to over 31%, and the stock is set to close below $10 for the first time since August [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - Options traders are increasingly buying puts for CLF, with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.01, the highest annual reading across major exchanges [3] - Both FCX and CLF are nearing "oversold" territory, indicated by their 14-Day Relative Strength Indexes (RSI) of 35 and 36, respectively [3]

Financial Performance - Cleveland-Cliffs reported fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $4.3 billion, unchanged from the same period last year, with a GAAP net loss of $235 million for the quarter and a full-year net loss of about $1.4 billion on revenues of $18.6 billion [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was only slightly positive for the year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector despite efforts in cost discipline and efficiency [2] Market Reaction - Following the financial results, CLF shares experienced a significant sell-off in early February 2026, with stock prices dropping by as much as 15–19% after revenue fell short of analysts' expectations [3] Future Outlook - Management has projected steel shipment volumes of approximately 16.5–17.0 million net tons in 2026, suggesting potential stabilization in demand and improved pricing capture [5] - The termination of a low-margin slab supply contract is expected to positively impact earnings in 2026 [5] Strategic Developments - A prospective partnership with POSCO could enhance Cleveland-Cliffs' access to advanced coating technologies and global customers, potentially altering investor perceptions [6] - U.S. trade protections continue to support domestic producers, but fluctuations in tariffs and demand patterns indicate that this support may not be guaranteed indefinitely [6] Operational Challenges - The company faces high debt levels and stretched leverage, indicating that the balance sheet remains a work in progress despite ongoing debt reduction efforts [7] - Rising costs for utilities and raw materials could pressure profit margins if selling prices do not keep pace [7] Internal Optimism - There are early signs of internal optimism, including modest insider purchases and efforts to optimize the manufacturing footprint, suggesting alignment with a long-term turnaround strategy [8] - Anticipated improvements in automotive production and infrastructure-driven steel demand may signal a potential inflection point for CLF stock in 2026 [8] Conclusion - Cleveland-Cliffs is navigating a challenging earnings environment while actively transforming its cost structure and strategic alliances to move towards sustainable profitability [9] - The fluctuations in stock prices reflect the tension between market optimism and the reality of operational challenges, with investors closely monitoring developments in 2026 for signs of earnings growth [9]

Core Insights - Vale S.A and Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. are significant entities in the global iron ore and steel supply chain, with Vale being a leading iron ore producer and Cleveland-Cliffs a top U.S. steelmaker and iron ore pellet supplier [1] Vale S.A - Vale is headquartered in Brazil and is one of the largest iron ore producers globally, also producing nickel, copper, cobalt, and various precious metals [2] - In 2025, Vale reported revenues of $38 billion, a 1% increase year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share rising 15% to $1.82 due to cost discipline [5][11] - Operationally, Vale exceeded expectations with iron ore production of approximately 336 million tons (Mt), copper output of about 382 thousand tons (kt), and nickel production of roughly 177 kt, marking the highest levels since 2018 for iron ore and copper [6] - Vale aims for iron ore production capacity of 335-345 Mt in 2026, increasing to 360 Mt by 2030, supported by projects like Vargem Grande 1 and Capanema Maximization [7] - The company is investing in base metals, projecting copper production to reach 420-500 kt by 2030 and 700 kt by 2035, with a 7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2035 [8][10] - Vale's nickel production is expected to be between 175 kt and 200 kt in 2026, with a target of 210-250 kt by 2030 [12] Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. - Cleveland-Cliffs reported revenues of $18.6 billion in 2025, a 3% decline, with an adjusted loss of $2.48 per share, attributed to weak automotive demand and lower steel prices [13][11] - The North American automotive sector is Cleveland-Cliffs' largest market, with light vehicle production in 2025 at 15.3 million units, below pre-COVID levels [14] - The average age of light vehicles in the U.S. is at a record high of 12.8 years, which may increase replacement demand, alongside a 25% tariff on imports expected to boost domestic vehicle production [15] - Cleveland-Cliffs has focused on cost-cutting and optimizing its asset footprint, while also exploring rare-earth potential at its ore bodies [16][17] Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale's fiscal 2026 earnings indicates a 16.5% year-over-year rise, while Cleveland-Cliffs' estimate for 2026 reflects a narrower loss of $0.38 per share [18][19] - Vale's stock has appreciated 72.2% over the past year, while Cleveland-Cliffs has declined by 1.9% [23] - Vale is trading at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 1.88X, compared to Cleveland-Cliffs' 0.29X [24] - Long-term steel demand is expected to benefit both companies, but Vale's diversified portfolio, strong production execution, and positive earnings growth projections strengthen its investment case [25][26]

Company Leadership Changes - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has appointed Ralph "Mike" Michael III as Lead Independent Director of the Board, effective immediately, succeeding Douglas Taylor who resigned due to a change in professional circumstances [1] - Lourenco Goncalves, Chairman, President, and CEO of Cleveland-Cliffs, expressed gratitude for Douglas Taylor's contributions and highlighted Mike Michael's strategic perspective and extensive knowledge of the steel industry as beneficial for the company [1] - Edilson Camara has been named Chairman of the Compensation and Organization Committee, replacing Mr. Taylor, and is recognized for his reputation among CEOs and Boards globally [1] Company Overview - Cleveland-Cliffs is a leading North America-based steel producer, focusing on value-added sheet products, particularly for the automotive industry [1] - The company is vertically integrated, covering the entire process from iron ore mining to primary steelmaking and downstream finishing [1] - Cleveland-Cliffs employs approximately 30,000 people across its operations in the United States and Canada [1] Financial Performance - In 2021, Cleveland-Cliffs reported revenues of $20.40 billion and a net income of $3.0 billion [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the expertise of Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA, who has a background in strategy consulting focused on brand and intangible asset valuation, particularly in technology, telecom, and banking sectors [1]. Group 1: Analyst Background - Vladimir Dimitrov has worked with some of the largest global brands in various sectors, indicating a strong understanding of market dynamics and brand valuation [1]. - He graduated from the London School of Economics, which adds credibility to his analytical skills and knowledge base [1]. - The focus is on identifying reasonably priced businesses that possess sustainable long-term competitive advantages, highlighting a value-oriented investment approach [1].

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs' stock has experienced a significant decline, dropping 32.5% at its lowest point, primarily due to disappointing earnings and macroeconomic challenges, but there are signs of potential recovery in 2026 as market dynamics improve and steel prices rise [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Cleveland-Cliffs reported a net loss of $1.4 billion for 2025, which is approximately double the loss from 2024 [6]. - The company ended a major five-year steel slab contract with ArcelorMittal USA in 2025 due to unprofitability stemming from a tariff-driven price gap [5]. Market Dynamics - The automotive sector, a key market for Cleveland-Cliffs, faced a slump in demand due to declining vehicle production in the U.S. during 2025 [4]. - However, management anticipates a recovery in automotive volumes and has already secured orders from clients, which is expected to positively impact revenue and earnings in 2026 [7]. Price Trends - Steel prices are expected to rise, with hot-rolled oil-steel prices projected to be nearly $60 per ton higher sequentially in the first quarter of 2026, with further improvements anticipated throughout the year [8]. - The Canadian subsidiary, Stelco, is expected to benefit from government-imposed restrictions on steel imports starting December 2025, which may enhance its market position [8]. Investment Outlook - Cleveland-Cliffs is viewed as a potential turnaround stock worth monitoring in 2026, given the anticipated recovery in market conditions and pricing [8].

A $37.3 million sale of Cleveland-Cliffs shares by Chief Executive Officer Lourenco Goncalves was done through a trust set up for family estate planning, says a company spokesperson https://t.co/jXcqqpRgeA ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential rollback of tariffs on steel and aluminum is causing significant market reactions, with producers experiencing declines in stock prices due to fears of increased foreign competition and reduced domestic pricing power [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Reactions - Steel and aluminum producers saw stock declines of 5-6% in early trading as investors anticipated renewed competition and softer pricing [1] - Cleveland-Cliffs, focused on U.S. steel, faced sharper declines, while Alcoa, an aluminum producer, also dropped due to concerns over lower pricing [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Changes - Tariffs have historically supported U.S. producers by maintaining margins and limiting cheaper imports; a rollback would reduce this support [2] - The removal of tariffs is expected to compress multiples for producers, indicating a direct relationship between protection and market premiums [3] Group 3: Potential Sector Rotation - The decline in metal producers may signal a rotation towards sectors that could benefit from lower input costs, such as automakers, machinery manufacturers, and construction companies [4] - Easing tariffs could improve margins for downstream industries, suggesting a classic cost-relief trade scenario [4] Group 4: Broader Implications - Policy shifts regarding tariffs can rapidly alter the landscape of entire sectors, with recent years seeing tariffs significantly influence the earnings of U.S. steel and aluminum companies [5] - The market is already adjusting to the potential changes, indicating that even hints of tariff reversals can introduce volatility [5]