美联储今年“必降息” 只是鲍威尔没反应过来？

Group 1 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this year, although the Fed itself may not yet be aware of this direction [1] - Derivatives market traders predict that the Fed will remain inactive until September, followed by a "rapid and significant" rate cut, with expectations of a 100 basis point drop to a range of 3.25%-3.5% by June next year [1] - Top economists warn that the market may be misjudging the Fed's stance, emphasizing that the Fed has prioritized its 2% inflation target and has implemented the most aggressive tightening cycle in history [1][2] Group 2 - The optimism regarding rate cuts stems from the Fed's previous slow response to inflation, but this has led to an underestimation of its subsequent hawkish resolve [2] - Former Fed officials indicate that Chairman Powell is under pressure to avoid being labeled as a failure in the fight against inflation, with recent statements reflecting a commitment to controlling inflation [2] - There is a possibility of continued rate hikes if inflation spirals out of control, highlighting the complexity of the current economic situation [3]