Ollie's Bargain Q1 Earnings on Deck: Key Trends Investors Should Track

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) is expected to report first-quarter fiscal 2025 results on June 3, with projected revenues of $564.7 million, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase [1][9] - However, the company is anticipated to experience a decline in earnings per share, estimated at 70 cents, which represents a 4.1% decrease from the previous year [2][9] Key Factors Driving OLLI's Q1 Performance - The business model of "buying cheap and selling cheap," along with cost-containment efforts and a focus on store productivity, is likely to contribute to strong revenue performance [3] - The Ollie's Army loyalty program has seen continuous membership growth, with over 15.1 million active members, accounting for more than 80% of sales [3] - The company is expected to achieve comparable store sales growth of 1% for the first quarter [4] Expansion and Market Position - Ollie's ongoing store expansion strategy is projected to drive incremental revenues, with plans to open 21 new stores in the first quarter [5] - The company has successfully opened former "99 Cents Only" stores and Big Lots locations, showcasing the scalability of its business model [5] Cost Pressures and Margin Outlook - Earnings are likely to decline due to elevated pre-opening and dark rent expenses from aggressive expansion, as well as rising selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs [6] - A sluggish start to the quarter and tough year-over-year comparisons are expected to limit same-store sales growth, with an anticipated contraction of 160 basis points in operating margin [6] Earnings Prediction Model - The model predicts an earnings beat for Ollie's, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +4.29% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7][8]