专访永明金融邓斌：险资配置需在不确定环境中寻找确定性收益｜湾区金融大咖说

Group 1: Global Capital Market and Investment Strategies - The global capital market is experiencing increased volatility, prompting international insurance capital to reassess their asset allocation strategies [1][2] - Chinese assets have become more attractive to international long-term funds, with the MSCI China Index rising nearly 13% year-to-date as of the end of May [1] - Long-term investors focus on a 10 to 20-year outlook, seeking stability and certainty in their investments, despite short-term market fluctuations [1][8] Group 2: Investment Preferences and Asset Allocation - International long-term funds prefer a "barbell strategy" in China, investing in high-dividend stocks of large state-owned enterprises and emerging technology sectors such as AI and semiconductors [1][8] - In the technology sector, insurance capital seeks certainty amid uncertainty, with a focus on leading companies in the power and copper industries due to rising demand from AI developments [2][8] - The demand for alternative assets is increasing within the insurance industry, particularly in the Asian market, as firms look for new investment opportunities [2][4] Group 3: Gold Investment and Risk Management - Chinese insurance capital has officially entered the gold market, with potential holdings estimated to reach between 208 tons and 555 tons, accounting for less than 2% of global gold demand [3] - Insurance capital follows a "three no-investment" principle, avoiding assets that cannot be managed for risk, priced, or exited easily, which raises concerns about gold's suitability for investment [3][7] - The long-term outlook for gold is positive due to its status as a safe asset, driven by demand for security and expectations of currency devaluation [2][7] Group 4: Impact of Interest Rates and Economic Conditions - Rising U.S. Treasury yields are viewed positively by insurance capital, as they allow for higher returns on premium income and improve solvency calculations [5] - The long-term trend in interest rates is expected to be downward due to technological advancements that reduce production costs and alleviate inflationary pressures [5][6] - The recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating is not expected to have a significant disruptive impact on global investment patterns, as demand for safe assets remains strong [6] Group 5: Chinese Market Opportunities - International long-term funds maintain interest in Chinese assets, with a focus on stability and long-term growth potential [8][10] - The healthcare sector in China is highlighted as a significant growth area, with innovations in pharmaceuticals and medical devices gaining global traction [10][11] - Overall, there are structural opportunities in Chinese assets, particularly as lower interest rates reduce financing costs and support stock market growth [11]