“全天候”风险管理服务赋能黑色产业链稳健运营

Core Insights - The domestic steel industry is facing significant challenges over the past two years, necessitating effective risk management to ensure stable operations [1] - The company provides comprehensive risk management services to clients in the steel supply chain, including macro and industry qualitative analysis, risk factor identification, price forecasting, hedging strategy optimization, and options tool application [1] Service Process - Continuous alerts regarding the downward price risk of black series commodities were provided from late 2023 to early 2024, enabling the company to offer integrated risk management services to upstream and downstream clients [2] Derivative Products - The project targets rebar futures and over-the-counter options, specifically the SHFE rebar 2405 contract, based on the risk management needs of steel trading entities [3] Execution Process - Risk warning services were provided before price declines, advising steel traders and manufacturers to increase hedging ratios from December 2023 to January 2024 [4] - On January 4, 2024, recommendations were made for steel traders to enhance hedging for hot-rolled futures, with the Shanghai spot market hot-rolled price at 4110 CNY/ton and the HC2405 contract short position entry price at 4150 CNY/ton [4] - On February 20, 2024, a recommendation to close positions was made, with the Shanghai spot market hot-rolled price at 3970 CNY/ton and the futures closing price at 3890 CNY/ton, resulting in a basis expansion of 120 CNY/ton [4] - A specialized presentation was conducted for an automotive manufacturing client on January 11, 2024, emphasizing the need to increase hedging for steel inventory, which the client successfully achieved [4] Risk Management During Price Decline - From February to March 2024, as black series commodity prices entered a downward trend, the company designed futures interval hedging strategies for steel traders and manufacturers, utilizing options tools for customized risk management services [4][5] - A strategy was suggested to buy put options for the RB2405 contract at a price of 3700 CNY/ton to mitigate downside risk while retaining potential upside from rising spot prices [5] Risk Management During Price Fluctuation - For steel traders and downstream construction clients, a "supply guarantee and price lock" collaboration was designed to achieve mutual benefits during the price fluctuation period [5] - On March 18, 2024, a long position was established for the RB2405 contract at 3420 CNY/ton, with the spot market price at 3610 CNY/ton, resulting in a basis of 190 CNY/ton [5] - On March 22, 2024, the long position was closed at 3630 CNY/ton, with the spot market price at 3660 CNY/ton, leading to a favorable basis movement [5] Project Summary - The establishment of an "all-weather" risk management service model allowed for personalized risk management strategies tailored to different stages, enterprise types, and risk preferences during a price decline [6] - In the first quarter of 2024, the company provided alerts on price volatility risks and designed risk management plans for clients in the black industry chain, effectively mitigating challenges posed by adverse price fluctuations [6]